Wolfgang Streeck on how capitalism will end, and a formula for coherent new regulation

Listening to Markopoulos, Ta tragoudia tou neou patera

My correspondent from Amsterdam called in distress: Wolfgang Streeck of the Max Planck Institute had spoken about the end of capitalism, and claimed that no-one has an idea how to solve this.

Streeck had an interview (in Dutch) by the formidable Caroline de Gruyter, and a video interview (in English) with weblog Follow The Money. A good read is “How will Capitalism End?” in the New Left Review 87, May-June 2014. It seems that Streeck and I agree on much, except on the presence or lack of solution approaches. (Dutch readers will also benefit much from Michel Verbeek on the German Ordoliberalismus and the balanced budget rule for the euro.)

There is the book “Buying Time. The delayed crisis of democratic capitalism” 2014.

Wolfgang Streeck 2014

I don’t have to read the latter book since I have been studying this problem since I started studying econometrics in 1973 and solved it at the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) in 1990. The crisis since 2007 merely confirms my analysis. What is required, is to boycott Holland till the censorship of economic science at CPB is lifted and I can present my full analysis. See:

• the About page above (and my books DRGTPE and CSBH)
• the article “Cause and cure of the crisis“ (2014)
• the memo “An Economic Supreme Court” (2014) in the Newsletter of the UK Royal Economic Society.

It seems to me that professor Streeck neglects – and correct me if I am wrong – that economic advice and in particular also economic planning are integral functions within the government of the modern state. To understand economic developments you also have to study the workings of that function. Economists who work in such functions are not per definition sadistically inclined, and rather follow the major economic science of their day. This is where my innovative contribution lies, that is censored by the directorate of the Dutch Central Planning bureau, and which this weblog on the advice to boycott Holland is all about. Two points are relevant here:

• some novel contributions to economic analysis, to improve economic science
• the advice to amend the Trias Politica structure with an Economic Supreme Court, such that economic advice and planning can be truly scientific – rather than being embedded within political processes as is the case nowadays.

What the reader should appreciate is that professor Streeck – like I do – considers the developments since 1970. Indeed, you can only appreciate what is happening when you take the longer view. For example: the years of Reagan and Thatcher were actually Keynesian years 1981-2007. Link up to World War I for the failure of the Trias Politica.

In “How will Capitalism End?” Streeck states:

“The image I have of the end of capitalism—an end that I believe is already under way—is one of a social system in chronic disrepair, for reasons of its own and regardless of the absence of a viable alternative. While we cannot know when and how exactly capitalism will disappear and what will succeed it, what matters is that no force is on hand that could be expected to reverse the three downward trends in economic growth, social equality and financial stability and end their mutual reinforcement. In contrast to the 1930s, there is today no political-economic formula on the horizon, left or right, that might provide capitalist societies with a coherent new regime of regulation, or régulation. Social integration as well as system integration seem irreversibly damaged and set to deteriorate further. [ftnt] What is most likely to happen as time passes is a continuous accumulation of small and not-so-small dysfunctions; none necessarily deadly as such, but most beyond repair, all the more so as they become too many for individual address. In the process, the parts of the whole will fit together less and less; frictions of all kinds will multiply; unanticipated consequences will spread, along ever more obscure lines of causation. Uncertainty will proliferate; crises of every sort—of legitimacy, productivity or both—will follow each other in quick succession while predictability and governability will decline further (as they have for decades now). Eventually, the myriad provisional fixes devised for short-term crisis management will collapse under the weight of the daily disasters produced by a social order in profound, anomic disarray.” (Wolfgang Streeck, “How will Capitalism End?” 2014)

We may imagine that major parts of Europe (Amsterdam) and the USA will start to look like parts of Syria and/or the Philippines.

From Azaz in Syria to Payatas – Manila in the Philippines (Source: wikimedia commons)

There are two important observations:

• Professor Streeck will think that Holland is an open minded country, especially when they are so nice to give him all this attention. In this way he will not observe the closed Dutch mind. Nobody will tell him about the censorship of economic since since 1990 and the need to boycott Holland till that is resolved. Professor Streeck visited Holland and left it again, still thinking that no-one has any idea for a solution, while that solution has already been developed and the Dutch CPB (and put into a drawer).
• A google also showed a book by Streeck and Thelen, “Beyond continuity : institutional change in advanced political economies” (2005). It so happens that I sent this email to professor Thelen in 2013. Did she read it, comprehend it, and communicate it to Streeck ? The email mentions Gerrit Zalm who as CEO of ABN AMRO came up in our last weblog discussion on bank bonuses. It is a small world – and a small country.

Addition April 11

Some other websites on professor Streeck’s analysis – who all lack the notion of an Economic Supreme Court:

• The Current Moment, by Philip Mader of Government Across Borders, with people of the Max Planck institute itself again
• Mr Liu’s Opinions, economic weblogger, who e.g. points to the difference between the USA and the Eurozone
• Renewal magazine, interview by Oxford historian Ben Jackson
• The European Institute of Columbia university, with a book talk video
• For Dutch readers there is also the exchange of views between economist Bas Jacobs and novelist Arnon Grunberg

Socrates can be Jesus too

Listening to Theodorakis & Saleas, Weeping eyes
and Anna RF,  Weeping eyes

Some authors look at the links between Greece and the Near East in their ancient myths and literature. Apart from mythology this mainly concerns Homer with the Iliad and the Odyssee – but we should not exclude the philosophies from Pythagoras onward. For the Near East think about e.g. Gilgamesh and the Hebrew Bible (the Tenach ~ Old Testament).

Three authors caught my attention. I am no student of this realm and hesitate to read their books. However, I can roughly understand what is reported about this area of research, and then wonder what may be relevant when we consider what mathematics education can contribute to the education on Jesus and the origin of Christianity. Mathematics deals with more than numbers and space, it also deals with patterns.

These three authors are:

• Bruce Louden, Homer’s Odyssey and the Near East, 2011, with this review by Jonathan L. Ready.
• Philippe Wajdenbaum, Argonauts of the desert, 2014, with this discussion of an earlier article by Neil Godfrey.
• Dennis Macdonald, with a string of articles and books since at least 1994, with various critiques, but let me mention Richard Carrier’s and some rejections.

A comment by Ready on Louden seems to hold for all authors:

“What is more, Louden’s book continues to refine the Homeric comparative project as a whole in three ways. First, the relationship Louden detects between the Hebrew Bible and the Odyssey is for the most part genealogical, not historical. [ftnt] He imagines some sort of common source used by, not direct, purposeful contact between, Greek and Israelite cultures (see, e.g., 11 and 121). But finding numerous and close connections between the Odyssey and Genesis, Louden hypothesizes “that the Odyssey, in some form, served as a model for individual parts of Genesis (particularly the myth of Joseph)” (324). Indeed—and this is the point I wish to stress—Louden reminds us that the transmission of motifs and tales was not solely westward: “Greek myth should be seen in a dialogic relation with Near Eastern myth, with influence running in both directions, during several different eras” (12). As another example of how Louden notes the possibility of movement eastward from Greece, I cite his speculation on a Greek origin for stories about a man wrestling a god (see 121). I hasten to add, however, that, although he ponders the matter in the book’s Conclusion, Louden is not really concerned with the actual mechanisms of transmission. His exercise is a heuristic one: “the main reason I adduce OT myths is because their parallels provide a tool for our understanding and interpretation of Homeric epic” (11). Second, Louden reaffirms the value of comparing Homeric epic with non-epic literature from the ancient Near East. After all, the Hebrew Bible may contain elements associated with epic or even epic material but is not itself epic. Nonetheless, comparatists need not fear connecting the text with Homeric epic. If we insist on comparing Homeric poetry only with that which we precariously define as epic, we shall deny ourselves access to a wealth of useful data. Third, I return to a point mentioned above. Louden consistently notes when different versions of the same episode, myth, or story pattern do different things (see, e.g., 176). This flexibility in his analytical program is most welcome, for the comparatist should delve into the discrepancies along with the convergences.” (Jonathan L. Ready in this review of Louden)

A question on the Zodiac

The Zodiac is one crowning achievement of neolithical times and early history. Because of lack of cameras and lack of writing, early observations were couched in narratives. Such narratives would discuss gods and goddesses. For some, the narratives would start lives of their own. One question that arises is how the Zodiac relates to these ancient tales, like Gilgamesh or the travels by Odysseus. In my book The simple mathematics of Jesus I pointed to the use of the Zodiac as some kind of a map for the New Testament. I also observed that the NT ~ OT. (See some reasons to summarize the OT into the NT.) Hence, if OT ~ Homer then we may surmise that the Zodiac would also be relevant for understanding the Odyssee.

This argument holds in more cases. A criticism on Macdonald is that passages in Mark refer to passages in the OT, so that Macdonald is erroneous in linking Mark to Homer. However, when the OT is also based upon Homer, then the link could still be correct. The only inference that would change is that Mark might be less Hellenizing than Macdonald suggests.

A surprise on Plato’s cave

I was much surprised by this:

“And the great Hellenistic thinker, Plato, composed a tale that has epitomized the best of Hellenistic values and Western values since. His allegory of the cave tells us how a would-be saviour of a people will do all he can out of compassion to rescue others. But at the same time those he loves and would save will not recognize him or his claims. They will even scoff at him, and even eventually seek to kill him if they ever have the chance.

This is the essence of the Gospel message about the nature, reception and fate of Jesus. Jesus is very much the classic Hellenistic (cum Roman) hero of the gentiles. He is like Achilles and like the saviour in the parable of the Cave.” (Neil Godfrey, vridar.org, 2011-03-17)

LXX and rabbits

A standard notion is that Ptolemy Soter (367-283 BC) introduced the syncretic god Serapis to unify the beliefs of his Greek soldiers and his Egyptian subjects. A hypothesis by Russell Gmirkin is that also the Septuagint was a deliberate creation and no mere translation of what already existed in completion – see this discussion at vridar.org. An argument is that Ptolemy’s actual name was Lagos – Rabbit – and that there is no explicit mention of rabbits in the Septuagint. The latter might however also be accomplished by mere editing, so we would want to consider more arguments.

A major problem is that the OT assigns full power to the priests in Jerusalem, and it is not clear why Ptolemy would create such an OT, and why he didn’t want full power to the king, who would he himself.

It depends however upon the period. The Ptolemies and Seleucids would battle about Palestine. In the period from Alexander till the arrival of the Romans, Palestine changed hands five times. Perhaps some Ptolemaic ruler wished for an independent Palestine like a buffer state ?

It is not clear whether Godfrey develops this argument himself or copies it from Gmirkin, but check the text at vridar.org for the clou:

“Rather, one only has evidence as late as ca. 400 BCE or what Wellhausen called “Oral Torah,” that is, an authority vested in the Jerusalem priesthood rather than in a written code of laws.” 

“But there is one detail Aristobulus gives us that may be a more certain clue to the date the Septuagint was composed. In the fictional Letter to Aristeas (recall that Gmirkin believes this to have been written by Aristobulus) he tells us that the Septuagint was written at the time Arsinoe II was the wife of Ptolemy II. Though this datum is in a fictional letter, it is nonetheless true that this Arsinoe, who was the full sister of Ptolemy II, did marry her brother (according to Egyptian royal custom) some time between 279 and 273 BCE. She died in July 269 BCE.” (Neil Godfrey, vridar.org, 2012-12-30)

Elsewhere we read:

“These documents tell us of Palestine under the rule of Ptolemy 11 [sic] Philadelphus (283‑246 B.C.E.). The country was often beset by Seleucid attacks and Bedouin incur­sions. Ptolemaic military units were stationed throughout Pal­estine, and many Greek cities were established.” (MyJewishLearning.com, Palestine in the Hellinistic Age)

Thus, if we concur with the notion that the Torah (Pentateuch) was written around 270 BC then Ptolemy II had control over Palestine, and:

• either wanted to turn Palestine into a buffer state under control of Jerusalem
• or overlooked the possibility of taking control (by creating a suitable syncretic text)
• or did create a syncretic text – so that the original oral tradition “was much worse”.

With all this Hellenizing, Socrates (ca. 469-499 BC) can be Jesus too

All this connects with an insight that I easily recalled from a course in philosophy in 1973:

“If one only regards the little that we know about Socrates really for certain, one would be inclined to ask: How is it possible that such a man, although he was a personality with a deep moral nature, and who died for his convictions, whose proper philosophy however is hardly seizable, has had such an immeasurable influence? One would point out that the comparison of the death of a martyr by Socrates with that of Christ and those of the earliest christian martyrs – which the texts of earliest Christianity indeed point out – have sustained a passionate memory of Socrates. But the real answer rather must be, that the impact of Socrates resides in his entirely exceptional personality, which can be humanly very close to us even after more than twenty centuries, rather than on what he taught. With him, namely, something entered into the history of mankind, what hence has become an ever deeper working inner force: the unwavering, self-sustaining, autonomous moral personality. This is the ‘Socratic Gospel’ of the internally free human, who does good only for the good.” (Hans Joachim Störig, “Geschiedenis van de filosofie”, part 1, p143, Prisma 409)

Thus, when we consider the creation of a syncretic gospel that had to combine both Judaism and Greek thought, then the authors may well have been tempted to take Socrates as the most powerful story available, and put a personage like him in the lands of Palestine.

Both Socrates and Jesus were convicted by a trial. The idea of a court trial that judges on the hero is ancient enough: compare the Osiris myth.

The best book on the trial is likely by I.F. Stone (1907-1989). Beware of hero worship however, not only w.r.t. Jesus but also w.r.t. Störig on Socrates:

“Actually, in spite of the journalistic pose, [Stone] is in Greece on a mission, having had a clear view of what he wants to do before he went. He wants to cleanse Athens of the Socratic blood guilt. Athens is a tragic protagonist, having itself violated what it holds most dear, its sacred principle of free speech. Socrates and his propagandists, Plato and Xenophon, succeeded in making Athens look bad to all later times. Socrates poses as the disinterested seeker for the truth, the man trying to turn from the darkness of the cave to the light of the sun, brought down by the prejudice of the city. Stone turns this around: Athens sought the truth and was tricked by the duplicitous Socrates. He really did engage in a conspiracy to discredit democratic openness and succeeded in getting Athens to betray itself. Lesson: philosophic detachment is inauthentic, a snare and a delusion. The thinker must be a participant in the progressive struggle of the people against the dark forces of reaction. History is the triumph of reason; distancing oneself from it in order to be reasonable is unreasonable and merely disguises old class interests. The true philosopher is éngage or committed. Thus Stone is Socrates’ accuser, the voice of Athens now become fully self-conscious and philosophic.” (Allan Bloom, review of I.F. Stone on Socrates, 1988)

I.F. Stone 1988

Addendum April 8:

(1) While the Church destroyed documents with alternative views, or stopped others from copying them, the same has been done in philosophy by followers of Plato, see Michel Onfray, Les sagesses antiques

(2) In religion, there is the distinction between the theology and the daily practice (mass, births, weddings, funerals). My essay SMOJ suggests that Plato’s philosophy didn’t develop into a religion since he forgot to develop a liturgy and to train priests who would do the rituals. It may however well be that Plato did develop such a religion, namely what became known as Christianity.

Tulips for Putin and Kasparov

Vladimir Putin called me this morning. He was his usual confidence but I sensed a tad of worry.

When Putin calls there must be a reason.

Vlad: “I did what you advised but it doesn’t work.”

Me: “Okay, I am listening.”

Vlad: “I didn’t kill Garry Kasparov yet, as you suggested, and I made sure that he was on Dutch television last Sunday. But I don’t see the headlines.”

Me: “Well, he complimented you by calling you “the most dangerous man the world has ever seen, potentially”. He even compared you to Hitler, but now with nuclear weapons. Many Dutch people are more afraid of you than ever. So you should agree that it works.”

Vlad: “Yes, of course, I watched the programme, shooting seventy tv sets to pieces. We agreed that I should experiment with democracy, so I let him have his say, so that everyone can see what idiot he is. But I don’t see a headline in The New York Times “Kasparov shows himself a great fool”. If this is democracy then I am glad that I am against it.”

Me: “But if you want people to understand that you are the most dangerous man the world has ever seen, then you need clowns like Kasparov who say so, since nobody else will dare this. Thus you cannot have the NYT to expose him as a clown, since then people will no longer listen to him, and people will no longer believe that you are the most dangerous man the world has ever seen.”

Putin went silent on the other side of the line.

Me: “Listen, democracy is a game in which you can never lose. You only have to understand its rules.”

Vlad: “I don’t play by rules. Why do you think that I am called dangerous ?”

Me: “Excuse me, I should have said “understand how it works”. You have to hand it to Kasparov: how he explained that you are no chess player since chess has rules while you are rather a poker player so that you can win even when your cards are lousy. Can’t you remember that chess game by you and me ?”

Vlad: “I thought that a silly comparison. When I play poker then I don’t have to bluff since I can always put in some nukes. But okay, I begin to understand why this interviewer Pieter Jan Hagens didn’t fall from his chair from laughter. He wanted his viewers to think that the idiot was given his freedom of speech.”

Me: “Exactly. Do also observe that Kasparov spoke with an interviewer and not with some top Dutch politicians. Kasparov could have asked them some embarrassing questions on MH17 and the Dutch Shell co-operation with Gazprom. The politicians on their part could have asked Kasparov for some real measures to hurt you. Neither happened. The trick of Dutch journalists is that they have wedged themselves into a position where they ask the questions and get paid a top income for that. Of course, such journalists are actually superfluous. People in top positions are quite capable to ask such questions themselves. They only need someone to announce who will be on the show: and anybody can do so and at a minimum wage. But this is how democracy works.”

Vlad: “And Pieter Jan Hagens thus made sure that there was no real political debate. I had to pay him for that too. I like the guy. I should invite him to Moscow to teach his tricks to my people. And they could teach him their tricks too.”

I could not suppress a shudder. I felt happy that this was a normal phone without views.

Vlad: “Still, Angela Merkel had this idiot Tsipras visiting her, and she got media coverage from all over the world, while my democratic experiment with Kasparov went unnoticed. I let the joker live ! Isn’t anybody grateful for that ?”

Me: “That is the price of being a dictator. This is a democratic world and you are the odd-man out. You will see that reaction again when Tsipras will visit you on April 8. I already wondered why you didn’t see the plight of the Greek people. If you receive and treat him while behaving as a dictator, then the world press will regard it as a non-event, but if you receive him as the inventor of democracy and a great inspiration for the European future, then the media will go berzerk.”

Vlad: “I don’t get you. You want Russia to take its example from Greece ?”

Me: “That would be a great headline ! You are doing fantastic ! Your small experiment with Kasparov on Dutch television is opening up your mind to possibilities that I hadn’t thought of myself ! Yes, look into that weird Greek system of democracy in which the largest party gets 50 seats extra. Check how Russian corruption can learn from Greek corruption in a democracy. Check how Tsipras has an inner circle with other clowns like Yannis Varoufakis, so that Kasparov’s discussion about your inner circle replacing you becomes even more silly. Check how a small determined country can wreak havoc on the world economic system, while you need a huge army and your nukes and still get expelled from the G8. I regard our discussion as very fruitful and promising. My compliments to you, the most dangerous man the world has ever known, potentially.”

Vlad, apparently pleased, but still with a tad of worry, as always when he was considering a democratic idea: “I don’t like that “potentially”. I am thinking that I will let Kasparov live a bit longer. I want him to see what I am potentially capable of.”

Garry Kasparov on Dutch tv, 2015-03-22 (Source: screenshot Buitenhof tv)

The Dutch uncontrolled hate & rage about Greece

The Dutch uncontrolled hate & rage about the new Greek crisis with Tsipras & Varoufakis may require an explanation.

But first remember Keynes.

Keynes on loans and debt

J.M. Keynes gave the argument twice:

• After World War 1: that victors and creditors should allow Germany to recover.
• After World War 2: that the USA as victor and creditor (also of the UK) should give easy terms to the rest of the world, to allow for their investments and exports.

Thus there is not only the responsibility of the debtor. There is also the responsibility of the creditor. The latter responsibility might even be larger since the creditor has more leeway.

The Press Conference of January 30 2015

Jeroen Dijsselbloem was mortally insulted when Yanis Varoufakis killed the Troika. Dijsselbloem had gone to talk and help in Dutch Polder Model fashion. His attitude was Calvinistic, as the Dutch tend to be. Varoufakis slammed this door shut, and they departed in ice.

Helena Smith for The Guardian:

“Send off for Joren Dijsselbloem ended with incredible stand-off as Varoufakis socked him one over the troika. The Dutchman looked enraged, bending forward to whisper something in Varoufakis’ ear to which the Greek finance minister did not respond. Greek finance ministry staff standing behind me said “Oh my God.”” (The Guardian, 2015-01-30)

Varoufakis & Dijsselbloem Press Conference, Jan 30 2015 ((c) Aris Messinis, AFP)

To understand this:

• This crisis concerns money, which is an issue that is dear to the Dutch heart and mind.
• The Dutch find themselves exposed as greedy fools who have lent money to Greece, while they should have seen that it wouldn’t come back.
• Holland is Calvinistic, with sin & eternal damnation, and looking elsewhere to avoid responsibility. (Catholics in Holland are still rather Calvinistic, and differ from those in Southern Europe or the Orthodox Greeks.)
• Holland is a rather small country, and the natural temptation is to pick on an even smaller country.
• Germany and Holland with their surpluses on the external account are a prime cause for the crisis, but Holland will not criticise Germany, let alone exert self-criticism.
• The directorate of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) censors the proper analysis since 1990, so that the Dutch public and young policy makers like Dijsselbloem have been trained for at least 25 years to see the world in a distorted mirror.

Jean-Claude Juncker stands with empty hands

Jean-Claude Juncker felt forced to embrace and hold hands with Alexis Tsipras, to show that the EU still loves Greece. However, Juncker doesn’t offer much. He stands with empty hands, so to say. The Tsipras-Varoufakis approach is fickle and incompetent at heart, see the earlier discussion.

The proper resolution must be looked for in Northern Europe, and Holland in particular.

Juncker takes the initiative to hold hands with Tsipras (Source: screenshot)

Hence, let us look deeper into the issue of the Dutch uncontrolled hate & rage about Greece.

Dijsselbloem seemed rather controlled in his rage, but beware of appearances

Just to be sure:

• Dutch behaviour and statements might seem to be controlled and polite. Do not be deceived.
• Controlled hate & rage are properly defined as: both dealing with the emotion and maintaining one’s logical capacities.
• The Dutch hate & rage show from the inability to apply logic and common sense & decency.
• Dutch upbringing of children is targeted at conformity. This means the sublimation of emotions into the illogical conventions of the day.
• Thus hate & rage are not shown, and they neither are a cause to think again and to analyse their origin.
• Logic and analysis may be a cause for non-conformity and thus must be avoided.
• We might also say that the Dutch hate & rage are repressed, but this neglects the consequences of such repression. It is better to say that they are uncontrolled, since this causes an awareness of such consequences.
• I am just a tentative psychologist in suggesting this diagnosis. See my earlier suggestion how to apply social psychology to economics. The master is Daniel Kahneman with prospect theory. The value of a gain may be less than the regret of a loss.

One of the Dutch parameters thus is:

The value of a logical insight may be less that the regret of not conforming to social convention.

The young Dutch fail in holding their own elders accountable

The proper response of the younger Dutch generation would be to hold their elder Dutch generation accountable for past policy errors like the euro and the censorship of science since 1990.

But the young Dutch coat the eminences grises of Dutch politics like Ruud Lubbers, Wim Kok and Wim Duisenberg (deceased) in teflon.

It is easier to blame the Greeks, even when they are young.

The Dutch government consists of a coalition of VVD and PvdA that betrays campaign promises. Prime minister Mark Rutte (VVD) is a neoliberal ideologue. He recently got the Rathenau prize but the kind people who gave the prize made a conceptual error. The social-democratic PvdA with Dijsselbloem has lost compass and integrity decades ago. The political opposition parties are escapist, like the fickle D66, the xenophobic Geert Wilders or the (Maoist) Socialist Party (SP).

The distinction between PvdA and SP might be somewhat enlightening. The PvdA (in government) belongs to the European Socialists (Socialist International), who apparently also want to change “socialist” into “social-democratic” ( PES). Their logo has a rose in a fist, and one also hopes that the rose has no thorns (or perhaps it should). Their international outlook should make that the PvdA should want to help their Greek labour brothers. Instead, the SP (in opposition) is nationalistic, similar to the nazi’s but without the antisemitism and only a mild aversion to immigration. Their emblem is a tomato, and they want that the Greeks throw their own tomatoes. Mao’s principle was not to follow convoluted Western socialist ideology but to follow popular sentiment so that the party can grow. Following Mao, the SP is opportunistic but with tight organisational control so that internal democracy consists out of following the leader who has the best nose for popular sentiment. (Dutch readers could look here.)

Dutch economists and journalists fail

Dutch economists and journalists fail in properly analysing the situation and reporting to the general public. Even the professionals blame the Greeks and want their money back. They don’t explain in adequate fashion what the Dutch export surplus means and how austerity blocks even the Dutch national investments. (And observe the perfidity, that low investments mean higher unemployment, which the Dutch translate as more wage moderation so that they can export more, implying the “exporting of unemployment”.)

There is one report that I can agree with for 99%: that is by Michel Verbeek on Sargasso (2014-12-30 in Dutch), who is not an economist but a biologist now working as a computer system manager (his own weblog), and who applies common sense to try to understand the economic crisis.

My 1% disagreement is that you need my own analysis to complete the picture, see here. Fellow economists are advised to read my books DRGTPE (before the crisis, free PDF) and its supplement CSBH (2012, during this crisis, paywall).

Diagnosis and treatment of the European crisis

The ship is not lost. Diagnosis and treatment w.r.t. the European crisis are:

• The European Monetary Union (EMU, euro) is a political project, and advised against by many (though too few) economists.
• The current EMU treaty fails and a new one is required.
• The EMU is also a product of a breach of scientific integrity, see the censorship and abuse of power w.r.t. Bernard Connolly in 1995.
• The situation might also have been different had my analysis not been censored in Holland in 1990. If Dutch parliament had done an inquiry in 1991 into the Dutch export surplus then many of these problems could have been resolved.
• Greece squandered its loans and the rich Greeks left the country with the proceeds.
• The Troika suffers from neoliberal economic ideology & incompetence.
• See my suggestions for a solution approach as I already explained to Varoufakis in 2012. (A kind reminder, no rage.)
• Overall, see the lecture Cause and cure of the crisis (2014).

PM. A short term escape route for Tsipras & Varoufakis

Professor Bagio Bossone already pointed to this provision:

“Article 14.4 of the ESCB statute states that: “National central banks may perform functions other than those specified in this Statute unless the Governing Council finds, by a majority of two thirds of the votes cast, that these interfere with the objectives and tasks of the ESCB. Such functions shall be performed on the responsibility and liability of national central banks and shall not be regarded as being part of the functions of the ESCB.” (ESCB 2008).” (Bagio Bossone, VoxEU 2013) (Check the Statute.)

If Tsipras & Varoufakis find a bit more than 1/3 of the vote that give them the benefit of the doubt, with measures that would conform with the overall objectives and tasks of the ESCB, then they might be able to prevent a collapse of the Greek economy, now that the ECB has stopped supporting the Greek banks. I would tend to favour that idea, and advise Dijsselbloem to do so too.

Angela Merkel and the Minotaur

Listening to Stavros Xarhakos, the beautiful Aman … Amen

How can, will, must Angela Merkel deal with the new Greek minister of finance Yanis Varoufakis (who wrote this book on the Minotaur that I didn’t read) ?

My earlier weblog discussion on Varoufakis was in May 2012 and it still gives my position.

I read the Modest Proposal by Varoufakis & Holland – not the version with Galbraith joined up – and discovered that I didn’t need to write a reaction. It is better that they, on their turn, read my analysis.

In 2011 I got two emails from Varoufakis that he would read my “Economic Plan for Europe“ (for economists) and get back to me. Apparently the paper & plan did not inspire him, or, there was another reason not to further respond.

Parts of my analysis have been published in the international community of economic research or in an online Greek newspaper. Unfortunately without a response by Varoufakis. Well, other economists didn’t react either. Somehow I still think that when your economy is in Depression like in Greece, Spain or Portugal, you would want to show some interest in a new analysis by an economist from Northern Europe, even an economist from Holland who gives severe criticism about his own minister of finance Jeroen Dijsselbloem – but no.

• 2009 VoxEU: “The current economic crisis: A solution that “lies buried and obscured in a mass of false theory”“
• 2011 eKathimerini: “An economic plan for Europe” (for the general public)
• 2012 eKathimerini: “A cheap moratorium on the stigma of eurozone debt“
• 2012 this blog: “Why I don’t blog at the Financial Times“
• 2013 RWER: “Money as gold versus money as water“
• 2014 RES Newsletter: “An Economic Supreme Court“

Bull leaping in Crete (Source: http://www.mlahanas.de)

Varoufakis now is in the spotlights. I am afraid that it will not help to focus on Greece, since no Northern European country will trust proposals coming from them. Varoufakis already lost his “benefit of the doubt credibility as a new face”, by killing the Troika in his first contact with Dijsselbloem, and sending confusing signals about a “write-off” versus “a swap for growth bonds”.

Instructive reads are by Frances Coppola earlier on the Modest Proposal and recently on what would really work for recovery and reform. See also Klaus Kastner who has been trying to talk sense to Varoufakis for some years now. Paul Krugman has some kind of Game Theory tabulation of the Game of Chicken, with the Greek population held at ransom. Angela Merkel would not want Syriza to win but neither wants the blame caused by Greek unreliability and incompentence. The problem is that Krugman hasn’t studied my new analysis.  Martin Wolf in the Financial Times with his overview of the Game of Chicken rather than stalemate. For the solution approach, I would include Economic Supreme Courts, resolution of the cause of the Great Stagflation, rational use of money, National Investment Banks, and for Greece and Southern Italy Investment Zones under International Law (leases like Hong Kong originally).

Jos Collignon – The caged mouse that roared (Source: (c) Collignon, reproduced here with permission)

Rather than Greece, it is more important to look at Holland. Like we had “Greek statistics” there is also “Dutch economics”. This has an abuse of power and censorship of economic science. I call on the world to boycott Holland till scientific freedom of thought is restored in Holland. See here.

Observe: the reason that you will not find so much of my work in the peer reviewed journals is that, of course, censorship must be lifted before the work can be published.

To return to the opening question: How can, will, must Angela Merkel deal with the new Greek minister of finance Yanis Varoufakis ? Well, it is part of the phenomenon of an economic crisis without national Economic Supreme Courts that this question will be hotly debated, with a rather risky outcome too.

PS 1. See also “Cause and Cure of the Crisis“

PS 2. Bull-leaping is something else than the Minotaur, but I need a damsel in the picture to represent dr. Merkel.

PS 3. When I was in gymnasium I could draw the ancient plan of the Labyrinth at Knossos from memory, but these brain cells have been lost, while the current economic crisis anyhow is a maze:

“maze refers to a complex branching (multicursal) puzzle with choices of path and direction; while a single-path (unicursal) labyrinth has only a single path to the center. A labyrinth in this sense has an unambiguous route to the center and back and is not difficult to navigate.” (quote in wikipedia)

PS 4. The title “Modest Proposal“ is a satire by Jonathan Swift of 1729, that the poor people of Ireland offer their children for consumption by the rich, so that they at least serve some purpose. Copying this title by Varoufakis suggests satire, or it is a wrong choice. This fickleness on the title is a telling sign. I haven’t further checked Varoufakis’s work. If he did more on mathematics and Game Theory than econometrics as an empirical study, then we might see another case that mathematical abstraction can lead astray into wishful thinking. In that case I should perhaps read the version written jointly with Galbraith, whom I regard as an excellent and empirical economist. But the problem is not that I haven’t read this yet, but that they haven’t read my work (or responded with questions about what they don’t agree with or don’t understand yet). You cannot communicate something new if it isn’t read.

Country Joe & the Fish

When you cannot listen to music without reading something, then I suggest this review by Philip Davis of the autobiography of Paul Feyerabend, that starts in World War 2.

When some people are calling for another war of religion, let us remember Country Joe & the Fish in the song I-Feel-Like-I’m-Fixin’-to-Die: asking What are we fighting for ? This song is so part of collective memory that I was surprised to discover that Joe McDonald still lives and thrives, see his website.

Country Joe and the Fish – Vietnam Song (Source: Screenshot)

There is also a great song by Thanos Mikroutsikos Mia pista of fosforo (“Dancing Floor made by Phosphor”), with a movie that depicts Greek people fleeing from either the euro or radical islam. You would not want to get in the same situation.

Thanos Mikroutsikos – Mia pista apo fosforo (Source: screenshot)

Subsequently there is Manos Loizos in “Ola se thumizoun”, which seems a love song but might also refer to a letter by a soldier who will not return from the battlefield. There is a simple version by Loizos himself and a concert version by Haris Alexiou who is clearly in pain for the sorrow that the letter causes. Here are the lyrics by Manolis Rasoulis.

Manos Loizos, Ola se thumizoun (Source: screenshot)

Haris Alexiou, Ola se thumizoun (Source: screenshot)

The Moon, the Star of Bethlehem, and Jesus

Everything hangs together, and the following is another instance.

Manos Hatzidakis

With some delay, my conscience protested that my discussion last week about Greek music did not mention Manos Hatzidakis (1925-1994), a.k.a. Hadjidakis. Listen to this great album Pame mia bolta sto fengari.

Album by Manos Hatzidakis (Source: YouTube)

See this documentary on him, with a scene in which he handles a cardboard Moon sickle.

Hatzidakis: “Einai ena hartino fengari …” (Source: Screenshot)

When is the Moon sickle on the left and when is it on the right ?

Astronomer Peter Barthel of Groningen university did a small sociological study that showed that people tend to portray a Moon sickle on the left also for early times in the evening, e.g. when children are still up and sing Xmas songs. In reality the evening has a right sickle, while the left sickle appears around four o’clock in the morning. See this paper in arxiv or this other in the Guardian on Xmas cards or this Dutch Talkshow in 2011. Barthel is a proponent for more attention to science in the public sphere.

Barthel’s conference on the Star of Bethlehem, October 2014

On the occasion of Groningen university’s anniversary of 400 years, Professor Barthel of the Kapteyn institute teamed up with Geurt (George) van Kooten, professor of New Testament and Early Christianity, and they organised a conference on the Star of Bethlehem. Professor Heino Falcke took the liberty to write this early report, in anticipation of the book that will be published by Brill.

Michael Molnar‘s proposition of his 1999 book The Star of Bethlehem: The Legacy of the Magi gets much attention by Falcke. Let me copy his copy of Molnar’s coin and the superimposed trajectory of Jupiter, and let me quote Molnar from his website.

Ancient coin with path of Jupiter 6 BC (Source: Michael Molnar, website)

“Superposed on the photograph of the coin is what I found: Jupiter underwent two occultations (“eclipses”) by the Moon in Aries in 6 BC. Jupiter was the regal “star” that conferred kingships – a power that was amplified when Jupiter was in close conjunctions with the Moon. The second occultation on April 17 coincided precisely when Jupiter was “in the east,” a condition mentioned twice in the biblical account about the Star of Bethlehem. In August of that year Jupiter became stationary and then “went before” through Aries where it became stationary again on December 19, 6 BC. This is when the regal planet “stood over.” – a secondary royal portent also described in the Bible. In particular, there is confirmation from a Roman astrologer that the conditions of April 17, 6 BC were believed to herald the birth of a divine, immortal, and omnipotent person born under the sign of the Jews, which we now know was Aries the Ram. Furthermore, the coins of Antioch and ancient astrological documents show that there was indeed a Star of Bethlehem as reported in the biblical account of Matthew. ” (Michael Molnar)

PM. Molnar refers to Firmicus Maternus at the time of Constantine in particular, but that is too late for our purposes. Interestingly, there is mention of Nero’s horoscope and Halley’s comet in 66 AD, which might give some credibility of Flavius Josephus’s story that he provided Vespasian that the latter would be the new king to rule the entire world. But FJ refers to an ancient tale and not the recent heavenly signs. And this still is 70 AD and not 6 BC.

Addendum December 24: It took me a while to find the criticism but here it is: Aaron Adair attended the Groningen Conference too, and this is his Summary. He is highly critical of Molnar’s approach, e.g. the Antioch coin and Aries sign would have no proper connection to the Holy Land. This is Adair’s book on the SoB, this is a refutation of Molnar’s review of Adair’s book, and this is Adair’s major criticism on Molnar:

“But if instead one sees what the texts says and to what purpose it was written, it makes so much more sense that the author of Matthew was not writing history, his Star was purposefully miraculous, and was written to show that Jesus was God’s anointed one, the Morning Star, son of the Dawn (Isaiah 14:12).”  (Aaron Adair)

Jesus – Discussion of Jona Lendering’s new book “Israël verdeeld” (Israel divided)

Readers of this weblog know that I wrote a book The simple mathematics of Jesus (2012). The analysis shows that the Bible actually is an astrological book. Jesus wasn’t born in reality. There are stories overall, and the scene with the three magi may be taken from Alexander the Great or such. Jesus is the proverbial scape-goat born in Capricorn to be sacrificed on Easter (while Barabbas is the other goat that is set free into the wilderness, see this example in Yom Kippur).

Dutch historian Jona Lendering of the website Livius.org now in 2014 published a book Israël verdeeld (in Dutch) claiming a historical Jesus. Apparently he did not study my analysis. Stagnation again.

My discussion on the book:  How a mainstream historical method creates its own Jesus.

Is Greek music going down the drain too ?

We tend to hear ever more horror stories. Those are often scare mongering and false reporting. Some people don’t quite understand what this is, however. They haven’t developed the antenna yet. We should have classes in school and at boxes where they sell newspapers to train people to keep their cool.

As an example, let me consider the scary notion that Greek music is going down the drain too.

Γιάννης Μαρκόπουλος – Yannis Markopoulos

Yannis Markopoulos is likely the best composer of Greece, with Vassilis Tsitsanis a good second and Mikis Theodorakis perhaps a third – though the editors of wikipedia call him the first: which proves that wikipedia is unreliable.

While Dalaras gave this concert in tribute to Tsitsanis, it happens too often that you think that the Tsitsanis original has more power. The band is fine, that is not the problem, but it is eventually only because Dalaras puts all his energy into it that the concerts comes alive, say after minute 25.

While there is a decent Dalaras website, there is only a small Markopoulos facebook page. The maestro is 75 and may not have the impulse to join the web. This is a pity for all his potential fans. Check this video that is on his page – but sadly the only one. Perhaps we must hope: yannismarkopoulos.com is under renewal.

Yannis Markopoulos (Source: video screenshot)

Ελευθερία Αρβανιτάκη – Eleftheria Arvanitaki

Eleftheria (Freedom) is already for many years a sensation and worthy follower in the tradition of great singers like Nana Mouskouri, Maria Farantouri and Haris Alexiou. Eleftheria has done her best with her website but it doesn’t help her much.

Here is a concert in 1999, in which Eleftheria only has to sing for 10 minutes and can do this for a huge audience.

Eleftheria Arvanitaki in 1999 – 10 minutes with a huge audience (Source: screenshot)

Compare this with a concert in 2011, only 12 years later, in which she has to perform under much worse conditions: she has to sing for 142 minutes (2:22 hours), has to dress up much more sexy and throw kisses into the audience, and only attracts a small audience in some cafe, who neglect her while they eat, drink, talk, sing and clap and whistle while she is performing.

Eleftheria Arvanitaki in 2011 (Source: screenshot)

Conclusion

These are some of the best artists. When you have a wine cellar and your best wines are gone then you know what this means for the rest. From this we conclude that Greek music is going down the drain too.

Scary, isn’t it ?

Anarchy and the Greek concert

Adam Curtis makes documentaries for the BBC, using its vast archive of materials. He meets with criticism for sloppy reasoning and for abuse of easy pictorials for argument. Ben Woodhams’s parody The Loving Trap went viral in 2011, see also the comment by Guy Walters in the New Statesman.

However, after my last interview with Vladislav Surkov I think that I can usefully point to these to documentaries by Adam Curtis:

• Years of stagnation and the poodles of power (2012)
• Hierarchy in the UK, anarchy in Kurdistan (2014)

When the Kurds switch from marxism to anarchism as their ideological inspiration, this seems opportunistic as it can be, but not without some realism, since there is obviously some need to replace a failure for something else. The choice for anarchy however is remarkable.

In a way it is not remarkable, since Russia has also kind-of selected that road. It is President Putin who brought back order, but it was his PR manager Vladislav Surkov who helped to create the kind of implementation that reminds of anarchy. That is, anarchy in the sense of lack of legal security, and in the sense of that it doesn’t matter what you do as long as you don’t interfere with the people in power. Perhaps one road towards clarity would be to make that anarchy official, with a legal system with a level playing field and a more equal distribution of wealth and power.

Perhaps the Kurds could explain to Russia why they switched from marxism to anarchism ? My impression is that it was opportunistic but perhaps there is a system in the madness ?

I am reminded of my earlier amazement that the Greek people are very disciplined in their music and dance, but apparently have gained some international reputation of being undisciplined and lazy. What is happening here ? See my earlier weblog texts that link to Greek music on youtube:

• What Greek do to each other (2012)
• A disciplinary board for mathematicians (2013)
• Europe’s amazing connections (2014)

Check the 1995 concert Tribute to Mikis Theodorakis, with Dalaras and various Greek musicians but also with support of the Dutch Metropole Orchestra and overall direction by Dick Bakker. In this case the Dutch orchestra wasn’t there to instill discipline but to partake in the Tribute.

Doesn’t Putin see that Greece is getting desperate ?

The Tourist Office of Greece has a video with a shot of the Milky Way, but shown from Australia, and one can hardly blame them, since it is a fantastic panorama. They are criticised that Australia isn’t quite in Greece, but there are a lot of Greek people in Australia, and, with modern education and wikipedia one would suppose that tourists know where you can see the Milky Way.

More of a problem is that Vladimir Putin is in Australia attending the G20, and is being criticised on the Ukraine as well. Putin belongs to the Orthodox Greek – Russian Church, and it is strange that he doesn’t defend Greece and Cyprus against the austerity programme imposed by Western Europe (a.k.a. Germany). Russia was already evicted from the G7, which was a disgrace to international diplomacy. Now similar social dynamics might happen to the G20. A bit of star-gazing might help the G20 to get a sense of perspective.

The Milky Way seen in Australia (Source: screenshot of Greek Tourism video)

In the mean time, the Acropolis still is in Athens.

Acropolis (Source: screenshot of Greek Tourism video)

And the island of Thira (Santorini) remains magnificent – likely with the vulcano eruption that caused the Biblical plagues in Egypt.

The Greek island of Thira (Source: screenshot of Greek Tourism video)