Archive

Monthly Archives: August 2013

Robert Skidelsky (1980), The reception of the Keynesian Revolution, p89-107 in Milo Keynes (ed) (1980), Essays on John Maynard Keynes, CUP, poses a key question on his opening page 89 and provides what I consider the key answer on page 104.

http://books.google.nl/books/about/Essays_on_John_Maynard_Keynes.html?id=s3qqM3B_920C&redir_esc=y

Skidelsky, parts of pages 98 and 104

The Trias Politica model of democracy fails. A system that relies on war to resolve issues of economic theory is a sick system.

Without war the ideas in this weblog might not be listened to. Europe has started a long period of open stagflation, while the risks of (civil) war are rising. With war, key agents with their ‘normal politics’ might be replaced, and then the ideas in this weblog might be listened to.

Hopefully Angela Merkel will admit after the elections of September 22 that she has been deceiving the voters. Hopefully she will admit later on that she opts for a United States of the Eurozone, that can levy additional taxes on Germany to pay for the problems in the South. Alternatively, by some freak accident of honest reporting in the German media, German voters discover her deception before the election day, and then run to the social democratic SPD that has no solution either, or the new party Alternative für Deutschland that wants to break up the euro and thus will cause such taxes right away anyhow.

See my Economic Plan for Europe elsewhere for a sensible middle road solution. See the About page for the links to the underlying theory. 

PM 1. Skidelsky now opts for a basic income but I see no economic need for that. The mixed economy by itself is able to restore full employment.

PM 2. The German speaking world has a weblog Ökonomenstimme for public discussion by professional economists. I submitted the following text but did not receive a response. I presume that my German is not so well but the text is short and an editor might quickly repair errors. The message would be relevant enough to publish it for public discussion.

Bundestagwahl 2013 und Boycott Holland

Thomas Colignatus
August 24, 2013
http://thomascool.eu/
http://econpapers.hhs.se/RAS/pco170.htm

JEL A1, E0, P16

Die Wahl zum Deutschen Bundestag am 22. September 2013 mangelt an tüchtige Information und Debatte über den euro, den Währungsunion, den Zukunft Europas und die Steuern die damit kommen.

Es stimmt dass z.B. das Handelsblatt publiziert über den “DeutschlandDuell“, 22. August, zwischen AfD-Chef Lucke und CDU-Finanzexperte Brinkhaus.

Doch es gibt auch ein neu-Theorie für den Optimalen Währungsraum, verfügbar hier am Münchener Working Paper Archive April 2013 und peer-publiziert hier in den Real-World Economics Review Juli 2013.

Der Kern betrifft ein Wirtschafts Oberstes Gericht (Economic Supreme Court) pro Nation in den Währungsunion. Es gibt keine Weitergabe der nationalen Souveränität nach Brüssel. Es gibt aber eine stärkere Überwachung durch eigenen wirtschaftlichen Wissenschaftler. Schuldenbremse sind zweifelhaft da Nationen auch investionen erfordern, und zwar anti-zyklisch.

Die Theorie über den Wirtschafts Oberstes Gericht gibts es länger. Sie wurde lanciert in 1990-1994 für die allgemeine Anwendung auf makroökonomische Politik. Sie ist aber die Zensur der Wissenschaft unterworfen von der Direktion der niederländischen Centraal Planbureau (CPB). Seit 2004 rate ich zu einem Boykott von Holland bis die Zensur aufgehoben ist. Sehen Sie auf der Website https://boycottholland.wordpress.com/about.

 

Advertisements

The Peace Palace in The Hague, seat of the International Court of Justice, was initiated in 1900 after the 1899 Peace Conference, and competed in 1913, just before the outbreak of World War I in 1914. On August 28 there will be centenary celebrations.

The Palace and its centenary party are low key. The Nobel Peace Prize tends to draw more attention, and annually. The Palace is a symbol of good intentions and impotence. The high ambitions and the low results create a great sense of imbalance. Perhaps it is okay that the Palace is located at some distance from the truly powerful capitals of the world, but it doesn’t seem okay that conflicts like in Syria can erupt and destroy the peace.

Steel magnate Andrew Carnegie donated a major sum to have the building and its library erected. People thought in terms of bricks and books and elites. A modern magnate would think in terms of the internet and reaching everyone individually. That kind of creativity will be required to prevent the next World War. But the building is beautiul.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Peace_palace_main_hall_1024.jpg

The Peace Palace, The Hague, statue of Justitia (Source: Wikipedia commons)

There are some personal notes. My great-great-grandfather Gerrit Cool (1825-1896) started a marble stonemasonry in Sneek, Friesland. His son and my great-grandfather Thomas Cool (1851-1904) didn’t want to continue in the company and preferred to become an artist painter. See his daughter’s book The five of us in Rome that received a first prize as the best children’s book for girls 1928. When his father died, Thomas sold the company to its recent managers, the brothers Vlietstra. They actually provided much marble to the Peace Palace. But the company didn’t survive the world crisis following the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Thomas made some huge paintings, some two by three meters, of buildings in Rome like the Saint Peter. When Thomas died, his surviving family had a hard time finding a place for those. In the early 1960s a friend worked at the Peace Palace and got it arranged that the paintings could be stored in its attic. In the early 1980s Thomas’s grandchildren inspected them, judged them to be too deteriorated, and had them destroyed. The only remaining large painting is the Colosseum in Moonlight, and this had been stored by my grandmother more safely next to the bicycles.

My own work on world peace concerns the analysis that the Montesquieu system of Trias Politica fails, and that each democratic nation requires a national Economic Supreme Court. The ESCs of the nations would be in scientific contact with each other, and thereby create some co-ordination of the world economy. Hopefully, my book DRGTPE on this finds its way into the Peace Palace library at some time.

Eurogroup president Jeroen Dijsselbloem is not a macro-economist. By training he is an agricultural economist (Wikipedia). He will rely on macro-economists and judge their advice by economic common sense. That common sense may however also be influenced by traditional mercantilist ideas that exports will earn us gold and make us rich. There is also the success of Dutch agricultural exports that may cloud his judgement.

His recent letter of June 19 to Dutch Parliament about the budget deliberations for 2014 contains this key statement (p3):

“Holland is in a so-called debt-recession. (…) The usual pattern of economic recovery in Holland (rising exports, rising investments, rising consumption) is slowed down by the type of crisis.”  (In Dutch gibberish: “Nederland bevindt zich in een zogenoemde balansrecessie. (…) Het gebruikelijke patroon van economisch herstel in Nederland (export trekt aan, investeringen groeien en particuliere consumptie neemt toe) komt door de aard van de crisis langzamer tot stand.”)

But the export surplus in 2013 is about 10% of GDP, see the CPB Central Economic Plan.

The Dutch surplus contributes to the deficits of Soutern Europe. The huge Dutch surplus is part of the European problem. Christine Lagarde of IMF shouldn’t send a team only to Greece but also to Holland, to sternly explain that the situation is intolerable and that Holland should work towards a balance (notably by importing more).

Yes, there is a debt crisis. If you insist on recovery via exports then recovery will be slow. But the debt crisis does not prevent you from tackling the export surplus. Full employment can be restored at home, by proper internal measures.

Dijsselbloem gets his advice from macro-economists who have been emphasizing exports since 1970. The Dutch system of social security creates a huge unemployment on the home market. The Dutch solve this by lower wages and relying on exports. The Dutch have been exporting their unemployment since 1970.

See my 1996 paper on the exposed and sheltered sectors, at EconPapers or a local file with graphs. It is also a chapter in DRGTPE and an update is in CSBH.

The Eurozone group has a president who is one of the key creators of the problems that they discuss, though sadly enough they aren’t aware of this. (That is, they may think that he causes other problems.)

http://www.flickr.com/photos/92227533@N07/8568563592/in/photolist-dUbjdr-dUbjiT-dZFpEE-eHGhWT-ej9f2Y-e9CnAg-f68fFu-dNoNST-f5kE1t-dNuoJ9-dNuoFq-e4bC6Q-e4b8r3-fogiTk-fogiee-8F3jgQ-eRt8Ee-e4Rp8T-dvvzPe-8cJYid-d1Px8b-eREwum-eiXoMS-eRuAeV-eiS4J4-eiREgF-eiXoKJ-eiXoSf-eiREpa-eiXGKU-eRt8VR-dUbj8g-eiYdEA-eRuAbk-dUgVUu-dUbjgP-dNuKmu-dUgVR5-dNpawk-dUgVPS-fxzbzD-8SN4Mo-c5JFxw-dr1jTY-brVTXN-dfJAtQ-dr1qJh-dwELen-fogimt-fogk9M-fovB3W/

Eurogroup March 15 2013, Schauble, Lagarde, Dijsselbloem (Source: EU Council)

Who advocates a worthy case for a boycott also suffers the task of monitoring the onslaught. Today brought me to Britain and especially to the BBC pages on The Netherlands.

No report on the boycott.

One wonders why they take the effort. These pages are ridiculous. Royalty, dikes, tulips, painters, drugs, some formal elections results, and of course the anti-immigration hiccups of late.

They also mention “Mondriaan” / “Mondrian”. Originally I criticised the BBC for misspelling his name “Mondriaan” as “Mondrian” but it appears that the artist himself started to use that other spelling when he moved to Paris. The BBC turns out to be more accurate on (some) facts than I was, but I maintain that the country report is a cliché.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Piet_Mondrian_and_P%C3%A9tro_van_Doesburg.jpg

Piet Mondriaan and his model (Nelly van Doesburg), 1923. (Source: Wikipedia Commons, some colours added)

PM. The BBC HARDtalk program is recommendable, on the other hand, e.g. with George Papaconstantinou about his time as finance minister of Greece 2009-2011. A HARDtalk session with Dutch minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem on the Dutch censorship of economic science would be nice.

Germany has elections on September 22, 2013. Angela Merkel supports the euro and is against financial transfers to Southern Europe though standard economic theory explains that a common currency requires such transfers. Merkel doesn’t mind her inconsistency and the misleading of voters since her goal is to win. After the elections, developments will force her to choose and perhaps then she will confess that the euro requires a United States of Europe with Germany to pay the bill. But power first, truth later.

Merkel thus shows herself a worthy daughter of Helmut Kohl who introduced the euro without telling the general public about the consequences that were already known to economists at that time.

The curious thing is that anyone can find this information on the internet, in economic textbooks, in the ample discussions on the European crisis, in the election programs of other parties, notably in Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) that has been founded for this very reason. German voters don’t seem to care. They seem to prefer the seeming certainty of the Merkel Ostrich Act above the uncertainty of new information and hard choices.

Merkel’s minister of finance Wolfgang Schäuble finally made some comments now that a new programme for Greece is required. Apparently not right away, the unemployed in Greece will have to wait till after the German elections. Bernd Lucke of AfD rightly comments: “He is miles away from laying all his cards on the table and talking straight with the population.” (Financial Times, August 20.) Will the German Election Summer finally turn hot this coming month or was this FT article just a fluke of reality ? A point is that economics professor Bernd Lucke is at danger of becoming too political himself too, as he apparently neglects my new suggestion for the theory of the optimal currency area, see MPRA or RWER.

A Ph.D. thesis by journalist Jens Peter Paul gives an interview with Helmut Kohl from 2002 where he clarifies his considerations, see this article by Valerina Pop at the EU Observer (2013). Kohl professes that his main concern was to prevent war. His circumstances were not as peaceful as presently is the case: the reunification of Germany was contentious and the USSR hadn’t collapsed yet. If it is true that the European political elites had been slowly manoeuvering towards a United States of Europe anyway then one might conceive an argument that a move towards a single currency might give good leverage (which argument of course neglects crucial national sentiments).

Kohl & Merkel make a complex couple. Merkel abhors the election finance scandal that Kohl caused and that forced her to replace him. Kohl abhors having been caught and replaced. Helmut Kohl is reported to have said that Merkel now is destroying his Europe, but he denies to have said so, see here. In 2012 we saw a forced meeting-again with clenched smiles, see here. British commentator Paul Goodman states: Merkel is Kohl, Cameron is Major.

Let us wish that Merkel doesn’t want to be a worthy daughter of Kohl and comes out clean. There is nothing to be afraid of, see my said paper on money.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ostriches_Kgalagadi_Transfrontier_Park.jpeg

Helmut Kohl, Angela Merkel, Ostriches (Source: Wikipedia Commons)

PM. The article by Valentina Pop has a comment that refers to dr. Rath who points to persistent German efforts at world domination since 1900 (with some farmaceutical companies that annoy him and that have undeniably nazi and holocaust links). Kaiser Wilhelm clearly hated the British Empire (and his British mother). A quick introduction is provided by the open letter in the International Herald Tribune, December 12, 2012 in relation to the Peace Prize for the EU. In itself it is striking that the first EU Commission President Walter Hallstein is a German who apparently wrote on European “integration” already before and during WW II. This however is not mentioned in Wikipedia (yet). In itself one can understand that Germany after WW II opted for European integration rather than being dominated by France and England. Perhaps it is a good idea for the EU Parliament to provide funds to historians to look into that open letter (and to farmacists for dr. Rath’s other claims).

I am burrying bottles at the beach of Scheveningen with messages for the future.

If human civilisation develops in stable manner, perhaps not with 3% but 0.3% economic growth, then in the year 2345 the economic level would be 1.003^(2345-2013) = 2.7 as much as today. People aren’t likely to notice the difference. My impression is that there will be digital, nano, and bio revolutions to the (non-) human body and society. People and sentinel robots might be too involved to notice the difference nevertheless.

The point remains that a new director at the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) in the year 2345 might not be much concerned by a letter of a former employee of 1982-1991 about a new economic analysis. The new director in 2013 doesn’t care and it is hard to imagine that successors will do so. How many bottles do I need to dispatch to which distant future ?

At the time of Chaucer (1343-1400) the Dutch and Anglo-Saxons could fairly understand each other. When Chaucer wrote about a knight, he pronounced the k, and the Dutch understood knecht, which is still a modern Dutch word for a servant for some lord. Six hundred years later we need professional translators who are aware of the k problem. Modern computers help close the gap again and they might get increasinly better (until they refuse to be our servants). I might help readers to translate my communication with the new CPB director. But this is a tricky exercise. Some subtle elements of Dutch culture are rather difficult to transfer (and might no longer exist in 2345).

The new CPB director has no background in economic science. She is an economist who worked in the government bureaucracy only. This is like president Obama appointing someone to the chair of the Council of Economic Advisors who has no background in economic science either. Some Dutch professors of economics protested to this appointment but have turned silent. In my view, the Dutch cabinet of ministers abuses its power of appointment, so my protest is permanent.

There exists a particular Dutch culture of talking with each other. A protestant might meet a catholic and they might hate each other’s guts and pray in church for eternal damnation, but they would smile with some bitterness, and agree to repair the dike to reduce the risk of flooding.  When a protestant (catholic) son and catholic (protestant) daughter fall in love, their parents might howl of indignation, but some arrangement is found, so that at least some of the offspring end up in the proper church. A recent example are the protestant King and his catholic Queen.

Thus, when the new director of the Dutch CPB refuses to talk with me then this is serious.

The general message of this weblog is that the Dutch are not as tolerant and free-minded as the world thinks they are. The particular Dutch culture of talking with each other might be seen as fitting with that image of tolerance. Perhaps my message doesn’t seem so consistent but I still think that it is. Another Dutch habit is to neglect others, like protestants and catholics neglecting each other’s existence, till a problem arises, with the need to talk. Apparently the new director doesn’t see the problem (yet).

Below is the exchange in emails, where I invite the new director of the Dutch CPB to talk with me, and the decline by the directorate secretary. Translate and experience the horror.

Appendix A: Email to Laura van Geest, the new director of the CPB

Date: Mon, 12 Aug 2013
To: Laura van Geest (CPB)
From: Thomas Cool / Thomas Colignatus
Subject: Verzoek tot een gesprek

Geachte mw. Van Geest,

Nu u bent aangetreden als directeur van het CPB bent u ook verantwoordelijk voor de behandeling vanaf nu van de censuur van de economische wetenschap door de directie van het CPB sinds 1990.

Voor de volledigheid meld ik dat de huidige economische crisis de juistheid van mijn analyse sinds 1990 bevestigt, en dat die analyse wegen biedt om de crisis aan te pakken. Dat er op het CPB geen onderzoek wordt gedaan naar deze bevestiging komt wellicht doordat mijn analyse in de ban is gedaan maar dat zou dus niet juist zijn.

Gaarne verzoek ik u om een gesprek waarin ik u nader kan toelichten over het falen van uw voorgangers Zalm, Don en Teulings t.a.v. de integriteit van de wetenschap. Ongetwijfeld zal uw omgeving en met name de juristen van EZ en BZK u verkeerde informatie geven. Weliswaar heeft de ambtenarenrechter censuur en ontslag toegelaten, maar dat betekent niet dat de ambtenarenrechter voldoende rekening heeft gehouden met de integriteit van de wetenschap.

Hieronder nog delen van enkele emails die ik in verband met uw benoeming aan de onderdirectie zond.

Met vriendelijke groet,

Thomas Cool / Thomas Colignatus
Econometrist (Groningen 1982) en leraar wiskunde (Leiden 2008)
Wetenschappelijk medewerker CPB 1982-1991
Scheveningen
http://thomascool.eu/

[… parts of email …]

Appendix B: Reply by the secretary of the directorate of the CPB

From: “Edwin van de Haar”
To: “Thomas Cool”
Date: 14 Aug 2013
Subject: reactie van het CPB

Geachte heer Cool,
 
Namens mevrouw Van Geest wil ik hierbij laten weten dat zij geen prijs stelt op een gesprek met u. Ook de huidige leiding van het CPB deelt uw interpretatie van de gebeurtenissen die 22 jaar geleden tot uw vertrek bij het CPB hebben geleid in het geheel niet. Noch voelt zij zich geroepen of verplicht u de gelegenheid te geven uw economische opvattingen verder uit te werken. Natuurlijk kunnen wij ons goed voorstellen dat dit voor u heel vervelend is. Dit hebt u de  afgelopen jaren op vele verschillende wijzen aan ons en anderen kenbaar gemaakt. Voor zover daar  aanleiding voor was hebben wij er ook op gereageerd. Dat zullen wij in de toekomst echter niet meer doen, aangezien de verschillen van inzicht tussen u en het CPB onoverbrugbaar en inhoudelijk onveranderd blijken.
 
Namens het CPB wens ik u verder het allerbeste toe.
 
Met vriendelijke groet,
 
Dr Edwin van de Haar
Directiesecreatris CPB

This weblog might confuse readers. Let me increase the confusion by wondering why Christ came down to Earth.

With a low tolerance for confusion, readers might decide that this weblog is all nonsense, instead of making the wiser decision that it actually makes sense. There might be heated discussions over dinner tables in the capitals of Europe what to think of this weblog and its advice to boycott Holland. From confusion to sense, that is the question.

In earlier religions we find gods walking the Earth, like Zeus taking the form of a bull and kidnapping & making love to the damsel Europa (wikipedia). Personally I find the interpretation more sensible that it concerned a cow and then likely the goddess Hathor, while ‘erep’ would be an ancient word for “sunset, the West” (hence the beginning of the night and the realm of the moon). The point however is that Zeus’s activities on Earth are of circumstantial relevance while the focus is on the affairs in heaven. This is entirely different from the New Testament that focusses on God / Christ on Earth. There ought to be a good reason why the Bible is so different from other religions. The following is a tentative answer.

Willem Zitman, Egypt: “Image of Heaven” , 2006, provides the clue. See the cover of that book below and his website that gives much of the text. (Dutch readers could look at Sterrenbeeld van Horus, 2000.)

Zitman argues that Egyptian religion regarded the country as an image of heaven. The god Osiris was both the Nile itself and the god of fertility active on Earth itself. The back cover (on the left) shows the geography of the Nile correlating with the star sign of Scorpio. The front cover (on the right) shows the “strong arm” in the sign of Orion, with Orion’s belt at Gizeh, and major pyramids built along that “strong arm”. That “strong arm” is apparently an ancient weapon, that may have started out as tying a stone to one’s wrist. Its influence still is reflected in the phrase “the strong arm of the law”. (There isn’t an easy wikipedia reference yet.)

To achieve the first correlation Zitman presents Scorpio rising on the East but in mirror image. However, when Scorpio is presented as setting in the West, then an observer standing in the Nile delta and looking South could project with greater ease (I presume). Overall, Zitman’s suggestion makes more sense than random locations of the pyramids.

Cover of "Egypt: Image of Heaven" by Willem Zitman, Frontier Publishing 2006

Cover of “Egypt: Image of Heaven” by Willem Zitman, Frontier Publishing 2006

My book The simple mathematics of Jesus follows others in the suggestion that the Bible found a major inspiration in Egyptian religion. The Old Testament already has Moses as a Son of God leading his people to the promised land, and making the sacrifice of not entering himself. Compare Ramses = Ra Mss, with Ra = the Sun god, and Mss = Son of. Thus Moses = Mss = Son of (the unspoken). The New Testament has the Son of God again walking the Earth and making a more dramatic sacrifice (though only the suffering for he resurrects).

Hence the new idea: the earlier suggestion that the Bible found major inspiration in Egyptian religion clearly explains why Christ came down to Earth: the Bible adopts the perspective of Egyptian religion in this too.

The German magazine Bild reported yesterday that the Mallawi Museum is destroyed and robbed, supposedly by members of the Moslem Brotherhood. (Dutch readers: de Volkskrant.) Zahi Hawass is quoted: “I have tears on my eyes and my heart is bleeding because we are loosing the best we have…..our heritage.” There would be bitter irony too. Moslems regard Jesus as the prophet Isa (i.e. not as the Son of God). When Jesus derives from ancient Egyptian religion, the Egyptian Moslems who destroy the Egyptian heritage also destroy the fountain of their own religion. One wonders whether Egypt will copy Syria and whether the pyramids are strong enough to survive this kind of Egypt.

PM. A note on consistency. Aymen Ibrahem has an important novel explanation of the ancient Egyptian view on solar eclipses. The hieroglyph called Akhet gives a sun between mountain Bakhu of sunrise and mountain Manu of sunset. In his analysis this actually indicates an eclipse rather than the daily event. The Great Pyramid appears to be called the “Eclipse of Khufu”, and so on. This explanation might seem to conflict with the explanation by Willem Zitman of a geographical projection, since the stars would not necessarily coincide with (solar) eclipses. However, my hypothesis is that the ancient Egyptians saw the sun, moon, planets and stars somewhat as the eyes of gods. The act of seeing requires the emission of rays of light. See here for the Eye of Horus. Thus each godly eye would have its own mountains in the firmament where it might eclipse. I tend to consider these two explanations as fairly consistent. Though, granted, ancient Egyptian religion and cosmology remain a soup.