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There is a useful interview with Bill Mitchell of December 2014 on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and unemployment. My only comment on this interview is that one should be aware that Mitchell gets wrong information from Holland, see this discussion.

Thinking about money I wondered about Bernard Lietaer. He has an impressive CV, so I watched most of this interview with him too. It appears that I can make the following comments. The main one is that Lietaer gets wrong information from Holland too. Apparently no one told him yet about the censorship of science at the Dutch Central Planning Bureau since 1990 and the relevance for his analysis on money.

Interest causes the need for growth ?

Question 3 “Why is money scarce?” gives Lietaer’s answer in minute 3-4 that interest mathematically would cause the need for growth. Consider an economy where all loans are $ 100 bn, and where all borrowers must pay an interest of 3%. Then the loans can only be repaid with interest to the sum of $ 103 bn, if, it is claimed, there is some growth of at least 3%. If there is less growth, then some borrowers would be forced into higher debt. In the past I have wondered about this phenomenon too. When you imagine that all loans are exactly from January 1 to December 31 then the argument seems to be compelling.

However, when I looked at this closer, I found the argument wanting. For, the 3% would be earnings by the banking system too, and thus be spent and injected into the economic cycle. Not all loans are exactly from January 1 to December 31. For this weblog article, I planned to make a diagram with the proper argument, but checked on google first whether someone had already debunked Lietaer’s argument. Indeed, Johan Rönnblom already gives a fine discussion with a diagram. He actually has some other good articles too (like on the Jesus myth).

Silvio Gesell’s decay / demurrage / negative interest

Lietaer repeats Silvio Gesell’s argument on money with decay or demurrage or negative interest. For example, a Decay-Euro might lose 2% of its value next month, so that you would have an incentive to spend it. He gives the example that this worked well in Egypt for 2000 years.

However,  we already have decay with inflation. Also, when part of your money earns interest in a bank, then the other part with no return has a relative penalty. These incentives are lost when there is deflation and a zero rate of interest, as has been the case nowadays. But there are other ways to bring money into circulation. (My conclusion is the need for national investment banks.)

Thus, there is no need for Silvio Gesell’s argument in this particular form. J.M. Keynes already though Gesell an interesting author because he pointed to the incentives to spend or hoard money, but there it stops.

Ecosystem of monies

Lietaer argues that a monoculture runs a large risk so that it is better to have an ecosystem of more monies.

This is somewhat problematic. W.r.t. Question 21 on the Euro, Lietaer appears to be in favour of it. But in subsequent discussion he states that his original wish was that all Eurozone nations had also kept their own currencies. This however is dubious. When we look at the case of Cuba with its CUC and CUP and informal use of the dollar (which the CUC is linked to), then this advice by Joseph Perry et al. is that the dollar should not be legal tender. Supposedly bad money drives out good money, but this applies to the hoarding of the good money, so that only the bad money is in circulation. The situation is different when the good money is amply available and doesn’t need to be hoarded. If the dollar would be legal tender then apparently it would annihilate the use of CUC and CUP. The mentioned advice refers to Panama and its use of the dollar. Thus, Lietaer’s preference for dual monies in the Eurozone cannot be maintained. If in Greece both Euro and Drachme would be legal tender, and be used to calculate and pay taxes, and when the Drachme would obviously tend to drop in value, then people would flee towards the use of the Euro. The use of a dual money would not only be against the spirit of the Eurozone but also be counterproductive, causing a resentment against the Euro that causes a devaluation of the Drachme.

I have the impression that the problem is rather nonexistent. What is important is the design of the system of money and banking with a single currency.

Obviously, when you don’t have a good design, then it might be a solution to have various monies with various designs in parallel, and hope that one of them works. But we already know plenty about money and there is no need for experimenting. Best is the observation that the Euro has a bad design, and that politicians did not pay sufficient attention to scientific advice. Each nation needs an Economic Supreme Court (ESC), to warrant the quality of information for policy making.

Complementary monies

The same holds for complementary monies like the Swiss WIR. There is no real need for them. It would not really differ from starting a community bank that has more creative criteria for credit. One might avoid taxes perhaps. I can imagine that complementary monies can work in times of crisis and a government that is fixed on some gold standard or so. For economists, however, the proper analysis should rather be criticism on the government for wrong policies and the absence of an Economic Supreme Court. For economists, the objective remains that people would use legal tender, and thus also be in the position to prosper in doing so.

World money

The world would be helped with a world currency. The current system with IMF and Worldbank would better be replaced with a more developed one (Keynes: “The fund is a bank, and the bank is a fund !”). The current system is remarkably resilient, perhaps also because of Lietaer’s involvement with floating exchange rates and the ECU. Yet there may be tough times ahead, and we should be able to make arrangements with the experience that we have. The notion of an optimal currency area goes against world money, but see my amendment in Money as gold versus money as water. Curiously, Lietaer also suggests to think about world money, but his proposal of an ecosystem would seem to go against it.

Supposedly a taboo ?

On Question 10 about the lack of discussion on these issues, Lietaer suggests that money is a taboo. I wonder. There are ample economists who study money. When some of Lietaer’s arguments aren’t convincing then this doesn’t necessarily mean that there isn’t enough discussion.

More reading

For a discussion about money, this article by Goodhart & Jensen is quite useful. (I thank H. Visser (VU) for alerting me to this.)

Let me refer also to my earlier discussion of the gold bugs and the paper Money as gold versus money as water.

Club of Rome: Money and sustainability: The missing link

There is also Lietaer’s book for the Club of Rome – and Finance Watch (with executive summary):

“Just as The Limits to Growth exposed the catastrophic flaws in our economic system, this new Report from the Club of Rome exposes the systemic flaws in our money system and the wrong thinking that underpins it. It describes the ongoing currency and banking crises we must expect if we continue with the current monopoly system – and the vicious impact of these crises on our communities, our society as a whole and our environment.”

Comments are:

  1. I haven’t read this book. Here are reviews.
  2. I am sympathetic to the subject area, see my draft book on the analysis by Tinbergen & Hueting on the economics of ecological survival. See Hueting’s site.
  3. I am afraid that the presumed mathematical necessity from interest to growth forms part of the argument, which has been debunked above.
  4. A bad system of money and banking will obviously hamper the economy, and thus also environmental sustainability. But the issues are logically independent. The summary by Dennis Meadows in the Preface (excecutive summary) doesn’t indicate to me that we can expect a proof of logical dependence.
  5. A good system of money and banking is here: Money as gold versus money as water and the suggestion by Kotlikoff.

Dennis Meadows still isn’t an economist

The mentioned preface by Meadows has some relevance here. Meadows is an engineer (systems dynamics) (like Lietaer started out too) but his report “limits to growth” was criticised by economists for not having prices, income effects and substitutions. Apparently, Meadows never took up the challenge to study economics, and now he is taken in by Lietaer’s incomplete economic analysis on money as if this would be the true story.

“I did not think about the money system at all. I took it for granted as a neutral and inevitable aspect of human society.” (Meadows, Executive Summary, p6)

Well, any macro economist has money as a subject in his or her training, and all would know that the idea of “money is a veil” is only a particular assumption (which students might later forget, that is true).

“a devastating critique of traditional economic thinking” (Meadows, p7)

He cannot say so, since he didn’t study economics and thus cannot judge about what Lietaer claims. I am very much a traditional thinking economist, but do not accuse me of errors that fellow economists are making.

The analysis in “limits to growth” was relevant because it pointed to the limits to natural resources and the ecology, but there it stops. For national decision making, democracies require Economic Supreme Courts that check the quality of information. Part of their task is to make sure that the information from the various sciences is integrated, so that parliaments can trust that decisions are based upon the best information available.

Potentially a link to the Dutch Sustainable Finance Lab

Potentially there is a link in the latter issue with the Dutch Sustainable Finance Lab. See their malconduct here and here.

Potentially disinformation at the Club of Rome too

There may also be disinformation at the Club of Rome. Wouter van Dieren (b 1941) is presented as a scientist, but he is mainly an activist, after first starting as a journalist. His prominence at the Club of Rome can only be explained by his prominence at the Club of Rome. Van Dieren supported drilling for gas and oil in the Wadden Sea and use the proceeds to buy out clam fishermen, apparently neglecting issues of sustainability and earthquakes.

Conclusion

Looking back at these points, my impression is that Lietaer is a relevant author who mentions relevant aspects to consider, yet, that the discussion of his work requires a much more critical evaluation than it has received. Somehow Lietaer’s work has become popular in “alternative” circles who lack the required critical attitude, and that is a pity also for Lietaer’s work itself.

Lietaer’s argument that interest either requires growth or causes more debt is wanting. The proper argument seems to be that people borrow too much or that banks are less successful in judging creditworthiness, but this is a different issue with different remedies.

I did not spot a compelling summary that inspires me to read more. I expect that a rewrite would help, but it would not be for me myself to try to do so.

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Hans Rosling (1948-2017) was a professor of public health and at the Swedish Academy of Sciences. I hadn’t heard about him but his death caused newsmedia to report about his mission to better inform people by the innovative presentation of statistics. I looked at some of his presentations, and found them both informative and innovative indeed.

I applaud this chart in which he tabulates not only causes and effects but rather means and goals. (Clicking on the picture will bring you to the TED talk 2007, and at the end the audience may applaud for another reason, namely when he swallows a sword to illustrate that the “impossible is possible”.)

Hans Rosling 1948-2017

Hans Rosling 1948-2017

Continue the discussion

My impression is that we best honour Rosling by continuing the discussion about his work. Thus, my comments are as follows.

First of all, my book Definition & Reality in the General Theory of Political Economy shows that the Trias Politica model of democracy fails, because it allows politicians still too much room to manipulate information and to meddle in scientific advice on policy making. Thus, governance is much more important than Rosling suggested. Because of his analysis, Rosling in some of his simulations only used economic growth as the decisive causal factor to explain the development of countries. However, the key causal factor is governance. The statistical reporting on this is not well developed yet. Thus, I move one + from economic growth to governance.

Secondly, my draft book The Tinbergen & Hueting Approach in the Economics of Ecological Survival discusses that the environment has become a dominant risk for the world as we know it. It is not a mathematical certainty that there will be ecological collapse, but the very nature of ecological collapse is that it comes suddenly, when you don’t expect it. The ecology is so complex and we simply don’t have enough information to manage it properly. It is like standing at the edge of a ravine. With superb control you might risk to edge one millimeter closer, but if you are not certain that the ground will hold and that there will not be a sudden rush of wind, then you better back up. The table given by Rosling doesn’t reflect this key point. Thus, I move one + from economic growth to the environment.

In sum, we get the following adapted table.

Adapted from Hans Rosling

I have contemplated for the means whether I would want to shift another + from economic growth to either human rights (property rights) or education (I am also a teacher). However, my current objective is to highlight the main analytical difference only.

In the continued discussion we should take care of proper definitions.

What does “economic growth” mean ?

The term “economic growth” is confusing. There is a distinction between level and annual growth of income, and there is a distinction w.r.t. categories within. Economic welfare consists of both material products (production and services) and immaterial elements (conditions and services). If the term “economic growth” includes both then this would be okay. In that case, however, the whole table would already be included in the notion of welfare and economic growth. Apparently, Hans Rosling intended the term “economic growth” for the material products. I would suggest to replace his “economic growth” by “income level”, and thus focus on both income and level rather than annual change of a confusingly named statistic. Obviously, it is a policy target that all people would have a decent standard of living, but it is useful to remain aware that income is only a means to a higher purpose, namely to live a good life.

PM. This causes a discussion about the income distribution, and how the poor and the rich refer to each other, so that the notion of poverty is relative to the general standard of society. In the 1980s the computer was a luxury item and nowadays a cell-phone with larger capacity is a necessity. These are relevant aspects but a discussion would lead too far here now.

What does “environment” mean ?

In the adapted table, the environment gets ++ as both means and goal. There is slight change of meaning for these separate angles.

  • The environment as a goal means that we want to preserve nature for our descendants. Our kids and grandchildren should also have tigers and whales in their natural habitat, and not as photographs only.
  • The environment as means causes some flip-flop thinking.
    (1) In economic thought, everything that exists either already existed or mankind has crafted it from what was given. Thus we only have (i) the environment, (ii) human labour. There are no other means available. From this perspective the environment deserves +++.
    (2) For most of its existence (some 60,000 years), mankind took the environment for granted. Clear air and water where available, and if some got polluted it was easy to move to a next clean spot. The economic price of the environment was zero. (Or close to it: the cost of moving was not quite a burden or seen as an economic cost.) Thus, as a means, the environment didn’t figure, and from this viewpoint it deserves a 0. There are still many people who think in this manner. It might be an engrained cultural habit, but a rather dangerous one.
    (3) Perhaps around the middle of the past century, the 1950s, the environment has become scarce. As Lionel Robbins explained: the environment has become an economic good. The environment provides functions for human existence and survival, and those functions now get a price. Even more, the Tinbergen & Hueting approach acknowledges that the ecology has become risky for human survival. The USA and Europe might think that they can outsource most environmental pollution to the poorer regions of the world, but when the rain forests turn into deserts and when the CO2 turns the oceans into an acid soup that eats away the bones of fish, then the USA and Europe will suffer the consequences too. In that perspective, the environment deserves +++.
    (4) How can we make sure that the environment gets proper place in the framework of all issues ? Eventually, nature is stronger than mankind, and there might arise some natural correction. However, there is also governance. If we get our stuff together, then mankind might manage the world economy, save the environment at some cost, but still achieve the other goals. Thus governance is +++ and the environment is relative at ++. Thus we arrive at above adapted table.
Dynamic simulation

As a teacher of mathematics I emphasize the combined presentation of text, formula, numeric table, and graph. By looking at these different angles, there is greater scope for integrated understanding. Some students are better at single aspects, but by presenting the four angles you cover the various types of students, and all students get an opportunity to develop the aspects that they are weaker in.

Obviously, dynamic simulation is a fifth aspect. See for example the Wolfram Demonstrations project. Many have been making applets in Java and embedding this in html5, yet the use of Mathematica would allow for more exchangeable and editable code and embedding within educational contexts in which the manipulation of text, formula, numeric table, and graph would also be standard.

Obviously, role playing and simulation games are a sixth aspect. This adds human interaction and social psychology to the learning experience. Dennis Meadows has been using this to allow people to grow aware of the risk on the environment, see e.g. “Stratagem” or MIT-Sloan.

The economic crisis of 2007+

What I particularly like about Rosling’s table is his emphasis on culture as a goal. Artists and other people in the world of culture will already be convinced of this – see also Roefie Hueting on the jazz stage – yet others may not be aware that mankind exists by culture.

There is also an important economic angle on culture as a means. In recessions and depressions, the government can stimulate cultural activity, such that money starts flowing again with much less risk for competitive conditions. That is, if the government would support the automobile industry or steel and do specific investments, then this might favour some industries or services at the cost of others, and it might affect competitive conditions overall, and even insert imbalances into the economy in some structural manner. Yet stimulating cultural activity might be much more neutral and still generate an economic stimulus.

For example, Germany around 1920 got into economic problems and the government responded by printing more money, and this caused the hyperinflation. This experience got ingrained in the German attitude towards monetary issues. In the Eurozone Germany follows the hard line that inflation should be prevented at all costs. Thus the eurozone now has fiat money that still functions as a gold standard because of the strict rules. (See my paper on this.) By comparison, when the USA around 1930 got into economic problems and the central bank was hesitant to print money (no doubt looking at the German example), this eventually caused the Great Depression. Thus monetary policy has the Scylla and Charybdis character, with the risks of either too little or too much. Potentially, the option to organise cultural activity would be a welcome addition to the instruments to avoid such risks and smooth the path towards recovery.

I am not quite suggesting that the ECB should print money to pay the unemployed in Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal to make music and dance in the streets, yet, when the EU would invest in musea and restorations and other cultural services so that Northern Europe can better enjoy their vacations in Southern Europe, then this likely would be more acceptable than when such funds would be invested directly in factories that start to compete with the North. The current situation that Southern Europe has both unemployment and less funds to maintain the cultural heritage is obviously less optimal.

The point is also made in my book Common Sense: Boycott Holland. Just to be sure: this notion w.r.t. culture is not the main point of CSBH. It is just a notion that is worthy of mentioning.

PM. Imagine a dynamic simulation of restoring the Colosseum. Or is it culturally more valuable as a ruin than fully restored ?

By Jaakko Luttinen - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=22495158

By Jaakko Luttinen – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=22495158

It is awkward to state the obvious, but let me do it anyway.

  • This weblog advises to boycott Holland till the censorship of science since 1990 by the directorate of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau (CPB) has been lifted (see the About page)
  • the censored analysis concerns unemployment and poverty
  • resolution of unemployment and poverty is crucial for resolution of world hunger (unless you want to distribute food for free, which isn’t likely to happen)
  • when I was a highschool student in 1972 and wanted to resolve world hunger, I decided that I better study econometrics rather than archeology
  • when I studied econometrics I decided that unemployment was the key topic, since this affects the basic needs. At that time I also wrote an article (in Dutch) that the New International Economic Order (NIEO) was no basic needs programme. Jan Tinbergen read the article and responded on the phone that I very likely was right on this. There is some rumour in Holland that Tinbergen was an impractical dreamer who tragically pursued unattainables, but see my In Memoriam (in Dutch) for praise of his wisdom and common sense.

Jan_Tinbergen_1982-smallThus this weblog is of key importance for world hunger too. It is almost impossible to make a dent into world hunger when you don’t get the economies up and running, with systems of social welfare that are supportive of full employment.

Jean Ziegler has called attention to the issue in clear words, though he lacks the economic theory that has been hit by censorship by the Dutch CPB directorate. See this article “We let them starve” in The Guardian. I haven’t read his 2013 book but I am convinced that it is depressing reading, especially when you know that the solution is at hand, and blocked by censorship. It is depressing too, to read this report on Ziegler’s flirt with Gadaffi (and then check out the pictures of Gadaffi’s visit to Paris and president Sarkozy in 2007).

zieglerMartin Caparros also takes issue at world hunger. See this article in the New York Times. See this interview at the University of Barcelona. Remarkably, there appears to be no English edition of his book yet, and the German edition of his book costs close to $100. Readers of German may also check out this article in Die Zeit.

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There are various organisations worldwide that try to deal with world hunger. However, their approach is bottom up in the Third World, and not targetted at protecting science in the Western World and debunking fallacies by Western governments. They are fighting symptoms and not tackling the causes. Admittedly, someone who is hungry is helped immediately with food, and thus it is difficult to be critical of micro management. However, the leaderships of such organisations should be aware where the real solution would come from.

It is the same in Holland. The Dutch chapter of The Hunger Project interviewed Martin Caparros (in English). Let me quote two questions and answers:

You argue that hunger is the consequence of a system. Capitalism is the culprit. At the same time you say that of all the major problems, hunger is easily fixed. It seems too simplistic: changing the system is not simple, is it?
“That’s a problem. Because what would it mean to solve hunger? Make sure people take in more calories each day? That is easily done. It requires some technical changes, but you can realize those if you invest enough money on for instance roads or agricultural innovations. But the point I am making is that hunger is a metaphor for poverty. You cannot solve hunger if you do not first solve the problem of poverty. And that requires an overhaul of our system.”

How do we do that?
“Well, who knows? Until the 80s and 90s people thought equal welfare and justice could be reached with socialism or communism. By now we know better. I think politics should help us change to a moral economy.”

(Quoted from an interview of Martin Caparros by Leontine Aarnoudse, OneWorld, 2016-02-19)

Morality would help but, but the track record of morality shows its limits. People will be willing to help out, but the economic process must support this. Thus, there is my economic analysis, that however has been censored since 1990 by the directorate of the Dutch CPB.

Obviously, when these Dutch organisations like The Hunger Project do not question the censorship of science by the directorate of the Dutch CPB, then they convey an image as if there would be freedom of thought in Holland, and that the problem indeed cannot be solved except by micro management and global morality. What can one do, to make these blind and deaf Dutch people grow aware of their blindness and deafness ?

I collaborated on a book in Dutch that discussed unemployment and poverty. When Holland has such difficulty to manage its own unemployment and poverty (with its level of education and technology and natural gas resources) then one should be modest about claims for the Third World, unless more can be said along the lines of this censored economic analysis. Not all is in this booklet yet, since there is this censorship. Economic scientists should look at DRGTPE. I did not yet collaborate on a book on world hunger. Is that the reason why the coin does not drop ?

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Addendum

The Hunger Project Nederland apparently was founded in 1980, and they “celebrated” the 35th anniversary in 2015. I find this difficult to square, for how can you celebrate continuation of something that should have ended in 1981 ? The official text reads that they celebrate the progress towards elimination of world hunger, with a new target for “in the next generation”, but this reads as an official excuse. The subject is a minefield, with this “celebration”, Ziegler & Gadaffi, and other such issues. I suppose that it is quite acceptable to have parties, for man is not only an animal but also a party animal, but please avoid the cognitive dissonance created here.

2015-THP-35-years

Radar TV is a consumer awareness programme, with Antoinette Hertsenberg in the role of Ralph Nader. Hertsenberg is annoyed that banks rule supreme again. Banks caused the 2007+ economic crisis and should have been tackled, cut up into pieces and put under surveillance. None of this happened, and we are heading for the next crisis.

Radar TV had two broadcasts in 2015 about borrowing and debt repayment, and then on January 14 2016 had a third event, a college / lecture, with presentations by three “experts” followed by discussion with the audience.

Unfortunately, the “experts” were no real experts: Dirk Bezemer, Klaas van Egmond, Gerhard Hormann.

A major problem is that economist Bezemer and engineer Van Egmond repeated the disinformation that they already committed with respect to Dutch Parliament in 2015. I reported on this in November 2015. Thus, Bezemer & Van Egmond have learned nothing and continue disinforming others.

PM. Some email-exchange on this with Van Egmond is included in this report, that deals with another issue, namely Rob van Dorland ((KNMI) in the context of the environment and climate change (check Paris 2015).

In earlier broadcasts but not now: Arnoud Boot

The earlier Radar TV broadcasts showed professor Arnoud Boot of the University of Amsterdam. He did not perform at this college / lecture.

Boot agrees on this: the ECB is buying time with its Quantitative Easing at the rate of EUR 60 bn per month. This money only stays in the financial circuits, reduces interest rates for savers and pensioners, raises stock prices for the wealthy, and doesn’t generate real investments when demand is wanting. When economies do not redress the banks then the next crisis will hurt even more.

There is a longer interview with Boot by “gold bug” Willem Middelkoop, December 24 2015. Around 2008, Middelkoop warned for an even bigger crash, set up a business advising people to buy gold and commodities rather than paper, and then sold his business. The bigger crash did not come. Apparently he still is taken seriously by some people. See my earlier discussion of the “gold bugs“. The 2015 interview with Boot shows that Middelkoop can ask some standard questions that are interesting when you haven’t heard them before. He doesn’t ask the critical ones. Boot doesn’t mind that people don’t ask the critical questions.

It is informative that Boot announces that he and the WRR (scientific council) will put out a report in April 2016 about disengaging the economy from the financial sector. Hopefully Boot and WRR will look at my paper “Money as gold versus money as water” (2013). Boot however fails by not protesting against the censorship of science by the directorate of the Dutch Central Planning Bureau, see here.

Bezemer repeats disinformation

Dirk Bezemer (University of Groningen) started out as an economist in agriculture and development. He shifted to finance after the crisis in 2007+. This change is acceptable. Also John Kenneth Galbraith (1908-2006) started out as an agricultural economist. Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the current (financial) president of the Eurozone, is an “agricultural engineer”. While this is acceptable, the problem lies in the attitude. When Dijsselbloem gets criticism that his knowledge on macro-economics is lacking, then he should pay attention, see here. When Bezemer receives criticism that he misinforms others, then he should take notice.

Bezemer drew much attention with the paper “No one saw this coming”. Bezemer here quotes Alan Greenspan, and then shows that there were warnings that Greenspan did not listen to.

You might expect that Bezemer might learn from such a paper that he himself should not make the same mistake as Greenspan. You might hope that Bezemer has become very careful in listening to criticism and warnings by others. However, Bezemer does not refer to my analysis since 1990 that also warned about the risks in the current economic structure. See my 2009 memo on this. He doesn’t do anything with my email to him about this. He does not study it, he does not write about it, he does not speak about it. Bezemer deliberately blocks my analysis with a wall of silence. We are 7 years further now, and Bezemer hasn’t found time to look at an analysis by a fellow economist who worked at the Dutch CPB in 1982-1991, and who was hit by censorship and foul dismissal.

This clarifies the distinction that I make between Boot and Bezemer. Both of them neglect the censorship of science by the directorate of the Dutch CPB. But Bezemer is much more outspoken about the blindness. Bezemer selected that blindness as his topic of research, and as a scientist he should look at all the evidence.

It is becoming a running gag on this weblog that Bezemer disinforms others. I already reported that he disinformed Sweden in 2012 and Dutch Parliament in 2015. It is not a running gag but a serious issue. This weblog has a scientific position, and malconduct by scientists cannot be neglected. Please note that I have not been following all that Bezemer has been doing or presenting.

In minute 90 Bezemer states that there is not enough communication about the issue (“Er is te weinig gesprek over.”), which neglects that he himself blocks my analysis with a wall of silence. Dutch readers may look at my evaluation of the deficient Report on Banking, written by Herman Wijffels (see below) and Arnoud Boot. Bezemer disinformed Radar TV not only on my analysis. When Klaas van Egmond made similar errors as I had warned about, Bezemer did not pass on my criticism (and did not say to me why my criticism would be deficient).

Bezemer: "There is not enough discussion." Source: Radar TV minute 90

Bezemer: “There is not enough communication.” Source: Radar TV minute 90

Klaas van Egmond repeats incompetence

Klaas van Egmond (University of Utrecht) is a food technology engineer who turned to environmental issues, who became head of the Dutch environmental planning agency (MNP), and who in the 2007+ crisis became co-founder of what they call the “Sustainable Finance Lab” (SFL) at UU.

In minute 110 in the college / lecture, Van Egmond rallies against banks that sold mortgages using the argument that the economy would continue to grow and grow forever.

  • He laments how dumb people have been in believing those banks.
  • He laments how mean and false those banks have been, since they must have known that their story was too good to be true.

However, in his own presentation (minute 45:30), Van Egmond presents a plan with “positive money” so that the economy can grow again (at least to 2050, perhaps not for ever and ever). This is inconsistent. In itself one can imagine an argument “continued growth is only possible with positive money”, but Van Egmond’s statement at minute 110 is apodictic against growth in general.

Growth by Van Egmond, Source: Radar TV minute 45:30.

Red line: growth by Van Egmond, Source: Radar TV minute 45:30.

More fundamentally, the “positive money” plan that Van Egmond presents suggests that the government would have billions from seigniorage to spend on public goods (perhaps even thirty billion). He suggests that this seigniorage is currently appropriated by banks. However, as I wrote him, he neglects both the proper value of the velocity of money and transaction costs. The payment system does not come for free. See my paper “Money as gold versus money as water” (2013) for an indicative calculation that seigniorage would be needed to cover the costs of the payment system. Unless you want to pay a percentage at each transaction, of course.

What is flabbergasting is that Van Egmond in an email acknowledges that he disinformed Dutch Parliament in 2015, but he still repeats the same disinformation at Radar TV in 2016. In this email he states both that he caused confusion for Parliament, and that a velocity of money of 1 (stock of money M = P Y / V = P Y = nominal national income) needs “careful attention”. Either this “careful attention” is a diplomatic rephrasing of “oops, this was a serious mistake” or he really doesn’t see the issue even when it has been pointed out to him: but in the latter case it is not clear what the “confusion” would be. Overall, Van Egmond disinforms Radar TV that above growth path would be feasible in the manner that he dreams up.

“Ik heb met de veronderstelling dat de velocity = 1 (geldhoeveelheid ongeveer gelijk aan BNP (pY)) inderdaad verwarring gesticht. Hoewel we op grond van onze berekeningen die veronderstelling menen te kunnen rechtvaardigen, is voorzichtigheid inderdaad geboden.” (Van Egmond, email 2015-11-18, here p26)

PM. There is the following curious issue. In the real-time broadcast Van Egmond stated that no economist had seen the crisis coming. I could not find this statement in the online version. Has it been edited out, or did I not search well enough ? In the session at Parliament, Van Egmond stated the same, and he quoted the paper by Bezemer as if this had shown that no economist had seen the crisis coming. The session at Parliament showed that Van Egmond hadn’t read Bezemer’s paper and misstated its summary. Perhaps Bezemer now protested, and Radar TV allowed Van Egmond to delete the passage ?

Van Egmond is a danger for his & the environment

The UU “Sustainable Finance Lab” (SFL) has been created by Klaas van Egmond and Herman Wijffels. At some time Arnoud Boot joined up. Van Egmond & Wijffels create the image as if they are supportive for the environment but critical of banks. Klaas van Egmond, however blocked Hueting’s analysis on the economics of the environment. Wijffels is a former CEO at RABO Bank, guilty of the same behaviour as banks in general, while Wijffels himself turned RABO Bank from a co-operative into the competitive bonus-driven bank that contributed to the LIBOR scandal. A diagram of the relationships may help to better see the abuse of science at Utrecht University.

Diagram of the abuse of science at University of Utrecht

Diagram of the abuse of science at Utrecht University

One would think that Dutch people are interested in rising sea levels. If there is one nation other than the island nations that will drown, one would expect that Holland would pay keen attention to Climate Change. Instead, Holland appointed Klaas van Egmond to become director of the Dutch environmental planning bureau (MNP).

Van Egmond blocked the analysis by Roefie Hueting on environmental sustainability. See my earlier weblog text on Hueting’s analysis.

In that same email of November 18 2015, Van Egmond argues that he didn’t see anything in Hueting’s analysis after “careful consideration” (my translation into English). However, Van Egmond never published what those “careful considerations” were. Thus he blocked a scientific discussion on those, and swept the issue under the carpet. In the email he states another apodiction: as if we cannot assess environmental damage. This runs counter to economic theory that policy better be formulated with the best information available. You may not like the quality of the information but it still is the best available, and you can at least try to handle the uncertainties as best as possible.

There is more: As long as Van Egmond uses such apodictions and doesn’t state in scientific manner what his objections are, we can suspect that his view actually is a matter of ideology and blindness. Namely, there are (at least) three approaches w.r.t. the economy and the environment:

  • (Neoclassical) Economists, like Pigou, Keynes, Robbins, Tinbergen, Hueting and me, who rely on the theory of economic welfare and national income accounting. Yes, there are discussions amongst economists, but they are all aware that governments must take decisions about next year’s budget. The Tinbergen & Hueting approach was much discriminated against by mainstream economists who were and are not interested in the environment. See my draft book: The Tinbergen & Hueting Approach in the Economics of Ecological Survival,
  • Engineers like Dennis Meadows and Van Egmond, who use “system dynamics” developed in engineering, for which economic theory is a distraction. This was used by the Club of Rome report that neglected price developments and such (so that many economists lost interest). The model that Van Egmond tries to use at “Sustainable Finance Lab” (with above misleading diagram on growth) is from this type of research.
  • Mathematicians like Georgescu-Roegen start with thermodynamics and entropy. Obviously entropy is a key notion in physics, but as long as the Sun keeps emitting light then Earth has an inflow of energy, and this approach on entropy may be abstractly correct but is not immediately relevant in terms of economics. Fleeing from Europe, Georgescu-Roegen came in the USA and they might have given him a professorship in statistics but they gave him erroneously a professorship in “economics”. There is a curious role by Herman Daly who had a B.A. and went directly to a Ph. D. in “economics” with thesis supervisor Georgescu-Roegen (see here). Daly continued with what is called “ecological economics” but which is not really economics. The field florished for a long while because mainstream economists were not so much interested in the environment.

The basic idea by SFL seems to be that the current structure of finance causes insustainability both for finance and the environment. This is a nice slogan that combines two topics that are somewhat popular. There is no proof for that slogan however. It is somewhat curious to link the notion of an insustainable financial debt to the issues of environmental sustainability. It makes more sense to regard the two subjects separately. See Hueting for the environment. See DRGTPE for finance, with updates in “Common Sense: Boycott Holland” (CSBH) and “Money as gold versus money as water”.

Gerhard Hormann and mortgage debt

A final Radar TV “expert” is Gerhard Hormann, urban planner and political scientist, who advised people before the 2007+ crisis to get rid of their mortgages. Hormann did not discover the risk himself but was alerted by a book by historian Eric Mecking. Perhaps it is useful to look at this connection later on, and see how Mecking and Hormann react when they hear that they have been disinformed by economists Wijffels, Boot and Bezemer.

Conclusion

The anatomy of Holland shows a morass fitting for a delta. It is encouraging to hear that Bezemer agrees that there is not enough communication and that Boot is working on yet another report on the banks. The issue will remain in people’s attention, perhaps till the delta is flooded by rising sea levels. It still is useful to boycott Holland till the censorship of science since 1990 by the directorate of the Dutch CPB is lifted.

Listening to Roefie Huetng with Jamie’s Blues

 

Roefie Hueting (1929) is an economist and jazz piano player, or a jazz piano player and an economist, who cannot decide which of the two is most important to him. See this earlier report on his double talent.

Hueting’s first public performance was on stage on liberation day May 5 1945 at the end of World War 2, when he was dragged out of his home to play for the people dancing in the streets. He still performs and thus he has been 55+15=70 years on stage.

With the Down Town Jazzband (DTJB) Hueting recorded 250 songs, played on all major Dutch stages, five times at the North Sea Jazzfestival, while the 50th DTJB anniversity of 1999 was together with the Residence Orchestra in a sold-out The Hague Philips Hall.

Hueting was one of the founders of the Dutch Jazzclub from which sprouted The Hague Jazz Club. This HJC has its current performances at the Crowne Plaza Hotel, formerly known as the “Promenade”. This hotel is at the Scheveningseweg, the first modern road in Holland, created by Constantijn Huygens in 1653, connecting the area of the Peace Palace – the area where also Grand Duchess Anna Paulowna of Russia (1795-1865) had her Summer palace – to the sea. See also these pictures of the German Atlantik Wall – to stay with the WW 2 theme.

At the celebration last Sunday September 27 other performers were Joy Misa (youtube), Machteld Cambridge, Erik Doelman (youtube) and Enno Spaanderman.

The Hague Alderman Joris Wijsmuller (urban development, housing, sustainability and culture) came to present Roefie Hueting with a book containing a picture of Mondriaan‘s Victory Boogie-Woogie – also celebrating the end of WW 2. Wijsmuller observed the erosion of “sustainability” that in the opinion of Hueting rather should be “environmental sustainability”.

Roefie Hueting and alderman Joris Wijsmuller at Crowne Plaza Hotel 2015-09-27

Roefie Hueting and alderman Joris Wijsmuller at Crowne Plaza Hotel 2015-09-27

Roefie Hueting solo at the piano, 2015-09-27

Roefie Hueting solo at the piano, 2015-09-27

Hueting introducing a jam session 2015-09-27

Hueting introducing a jam session 2015-09-27

"Victory Boogie-Woogie" by Piet Mondriaan (Source: Wikimedia Commons)

“Victory Boogie-Woogie” by Piet Mondriaan (Source: Wikimedia Commons)