Vladimir Putin (1952) was president of Russia in 2000-2008, was premier in 2008-2012 in exchange with Dmitry Medvedev, and became president again from 2012, probably till 2020 when he will be 68 years of age.
Who considers the Ukraine must also consider Putin’s thoughts about what will happen after 2020. Will he become premier again, so that he can become president again in 2024 when he turns 72 ? His fitness training will not stop him.
Let us do a thought experiment. Presume that Putin has instructed the Russian state laboratories to increase the research in cloning, robots and artificial intelligence. Perhaps not yet in 2020 but possibly in 2032 when he turns 80, the old Putin can have his brain transplanted into a clone, supported by (nano-) robots and with a back-up in a supercomputer in the basement of the Kremlin, with also improved cooling for Lenin. In that way we may expect still a thousand years of Putin to come.
The big moment of that transplantation is only 18 years in the future but technology develops rapidly. The Russians can also spy for new technology in the West, as for example Google apparently has a similar goal with robots and artificial intelligence. Sergey Brin is Russian by birth and he might have an emotional weak spot to help Putin.
By consequence, people who think that the crisis in the Ukraine is temporary and will certainly be over when Putin’s presidency ends in 2020, better think again.
When the USSR collapsed, the Russian policy makers in Moscow learned by experience that the USSR was an instable construction. At that time Putin was stationed in Dresden, Germany, and missed out on that learning experience. His goal is to restore the USSR whatever the lessons that others have learned. Some commentators are aware of this background, and then might also think that the problem will go away when Putin eventually will leave the scene. This is wishful thinking. Agreed that it still is science fiction that Putin could be transplanted into an everlasting robot-clone, but his management model of autocracy and national pride shows some endurance and may well continue for several decades.
Putin’s model doesn’t allow for independent judges and a free press, and thus he cannot allow a democratic Ukraine. Kiev is historically the first Russian city and thus it cannot become a beacon for free thought. It may also be observed that the Eastern Ukraine has factories that the Russian space programme depends upon. Thus the current situation is well-explained and the only surprise was that the protesters on the Maidan Square managed to oust Putin’s puppet Yanukovich.
Putin has argued that the ousting of Yanokovich was illegal since proper procedure was not followed. The Geneva Accord that calls for the retraction of illegal occupations thus also implies that Yanukovich can return. The negotiaters have been sleeping.
As one option, Putin continues to destabilize the East so that he can call the presidential elections on May 25 to be illegal too. But chaos in the East will hinder his space programme too, and it may make the Russians there wary when they start realising that it is Putin who is creating their chaos. As another option, Putin allows the Ukraine to decentralize in East and West themselves, so that he can later absorb the East and then turn the West into chaos.
Better options require better leadership from those who have been sleeping in Geneva. It is more useful to observe that there were Russians in Russia a thousand years ago and that in all likelihood there will still be Russians in Russia over a thousand years. Thus peace between Western Europe and Eastern Europe including Russia ought to be the policy goal. As the European Union is sold to the general public with the argument that it prevents a new war between Germany and France, why would that argument not be valid with respect to Russia ?
Rather, the confusion, if not the insanity, in Brussels is that the EU requires political integration to become a United States of Europe. It is precisely this confusion that causes instability, while the proper argument is that a sufficient and necessary condition is a free trade area, alongside with decentral mechanisms for military security. (You wouldn’t want a centralized military and decentralized democracy, since then the military takes over.)
Hence, see the earlier entry on the mindmap for the European theatre.
And obviously, the process towards peace is greatly hindered by devastating unemployment all over. It is good to know that there is a solution for that too, see here. Would the world indeed require a thousand years with Putin before it sees that it better boycotts Holland to resolve the censorship of economic science with respect to the analysis on unemployment ?