An economic plan for Europe

This is a summary of an Economic plan for Europe (see the links for the supporting longer papers):

(1) In the short term, economies and policy makers are under too much stress, which is painful for the people who are suffering and unwise for policy makers who need a cool head. Thus my advice is to allow for eurozone bonds for some years at 3% of GDP max per annum. I advise against eurozone bonds as the long term solution but their use allows a short term moratorium.

(2) For the longer term: To resolve future government debt and the trajectory to stability around 60% GDP my suggestion is to create a regime ladder. Below 80% EU members are free to use bullet bonds but with some support from the ECB to maintain the range of the rate of discount, between 80-90% they have to use annuity bonds and still have support of the ECB to control the rate of discount, and above 90% they are free again but without any support. Investors thus have time to get out in time. This requires a change of the treaty on the ECB. See my note in the Royal Economic Society Newsletter or the longer paper.

(3) For the longer term as well: The suggestion is to focus on four points: (1) better governance, (2) investments for employment and growth, (3) fiscal policy based upon functional finance, and (4) monetary stability. Better governance is attained not by surrendering more power to Brussels but by having a constitutional Economic Supreme Court per member state. The debt overhang of Italy and Greece can be sterilized within the monetary system provided that they provide some collateral, such as establishing international investment zones. National Investment Banks are crucial for the functioning of an economy. See the longer paper or the interview by graduate student Protesilaos Stavrou, or the article in eKathimerini. (Actually, I fid the articles there by Nick Malkoutzis quite informative.)

These are the main points. This summary seems useful since it is easy to lose focus. More details are at my 2007+ crisis page. This economic plan is based upon the new synthesis in economic theory presented in DRGTPE.

PS. For the USA and the G20: check out this.

Advertisements

Comments are closed.

%d bloggers like this: